World grain production forecast reduced for the second consecutive month

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) experts have lowered the forecast for world grain production by more than 2 mln t for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced prospects for coarse grains and, to a lesser extent, wheat production.

Despite this, the world grains output is still set to surpass 2018’s outturn by nearly 47 mln t (1.8%), analysts note.

The forecast for world coarse grain production in 2019 has been trimmed by 1.3 mln t since the previous month and now stands at 1 425 mln t, 1.2% (17.6 mln t) above the 2018 output. Most of the monthly decrease reflects cuts to the production forecast of barley in Australia, as persisting moisture deficits further reduced yield prospects, and corn in Mexico, where dry weather conditions during key crop development stages curbed yield expectations and led to higher incidences of crop losses. These declines outweighed upward revisions made to the barley production estimates in the European Union and Ukraine, underpinned by higher-than-previously anticipated yields.

FAO’s forecast for global wheat production in 2019 has also been lowered by nearly 1 mln t and is now pegged at 765 mln t, still up 4.5% from 2018 and a record level.

"The bulk of the month-on-month decrease stems from a downgrading of the wheat production forecast in Australia, amid persisting rainfall deficits and consequently lower yield prospects, and Kazakhstan, where official data pointed to a more significant impact of early-dry weather on crops in the main wheat-growing regions. These cutbacks more than offset upward revisions made to the production estimates in the EU and Ukraine, mostly driven by higher yields," the report reads.

As a reminder, by November 6th harvesting of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine was conducted on the area of 14.4 mln ha or 94% of the total. The crop reached 68.8 mln t using the average yield of 4.78 t/ha (2018: 4.46 t/ha).

The new edition of the infographic guide Ukrainian Agribusiness 2018/19 is available for download.

Global grain production (click for full resolution)

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