USDA cut corn production estimate for Ukraine

USDA forecast of corn production in Ukraine in 2020/21 was reduced by 2 mln t to 36.5 mln t (38.5 mln t in the September USDA report).

In its latest report, the forecast of corn export from Ukraine in 2020/21 was also lowered by 2 mln t to 30.5 mln t vs. 32.5 mln t in September estimate.

Corn carryovers estimate in the reporting period decreased by 0.5 mln t to 1.16 mln t.

According to the USDA report, the U.S. corn harvest will reach 373.95 mln t, 4.52 mln t lower from the previous forecast. Forecast of grain export from the U.S. remained unchanged, and the ending stocks of corn decreased to 55.04 mln t (-8.53 mln t to September estimate).

Corn harvest projection for the key exporting countries remained unchanged:

  • Argentina: 50 mln t
  • Brazil: 110 mln t
  • Russia: 15 mln t
  • South Africa: 14 mln t

"In addition to a downward adjustment of production forecast in the U.S. (by 4.5 mln t), USDA cut production for Ukraine from 38.5 to 36.5 mln t. Of course, this is still very far from the range with which the Ukrainian market works, but as in the U.S., USDA is not in a hurry to change its forecasts until December, when the harvesting will be completed or coming to the finish line. The forecast for the EU has also been slightly lowered (-200 thou. t) — the situation in Romania is obviously also ignored," analysts of Barva Invest comment.

USDA experts note that global corn production is expected at 1,158.82 mln t compared to the previous forecast of 1,162.38 mln t, exports at 184.47 mln t, and ending stocks at 300.45 mln t.

In addition, the October USDA report included reduced beginning stocks of corn from 309.15 to 304.24 mln t.

As of October 9, corn export from Ukraine is 67% lower YoY.

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