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November USDA: wheat export from Ukraine in 2021/22 projected 0.5 mln t up
9 November 2021, 20:29
The Agriculture Department (USDA) in its November report projects wheat export from Ukraine to reach 24 mln t in the 2021/22(July 2021-June 2022) season, 0.5 mln t above the previous estimate.
USDA analysts left unchanged the projection for wheat production in Ukraine in 2021/22, at 33 mln t. However, wheat ending stocks are projected 0.3 mln t down on the previous estimate, at 1.41 mln t.
Related: What Threat Does the New Grain Accounting Instruction Pose to Agriproducers in Ukraine?
The world wheat production in 2021/22 is projected at 775.28 mln t, 0.59 mln t down from the October report (775.87 mln t). The world wheat export projection was revised upward by 3.53 mln t to 203.16 mln t. Wheat ending stocks forecast was also reduced by 1.38 mln t to 275.8 mln t (October report: 277.18 mln t).
The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2021/22 (November vs. October report indicators, mln t):
| Country | Production | Exports | Ending stocks |
| EU | 138.4 (–1) | 36.5 (+1) | 9.74 (–0.98) |
| Russia | 74.5 (+2) | 36 (+1) | 9.98 (+0.5) |
| Ukraine | 33 | 24 (+0.5) | 1.41 (–0.3) |
| Australia | 31.5 | 23.5 | 3.58 (–0.5) |
| Canada | 21 | 15 | 4.49 |
| Argentina | 20 | 13.5 | 2.54 (–0.2) |
China's wheat 2021/22 projection is stable mth/mth:
- production: 136.9 mln t
- import: 10 mln t
- ending stocks: 141.02 mln t
- exports: 1 mln t
As of 10 November, wheat export from Ukraine in the 2021/22 season made up 12.9 mln t, 1.9 mln t up YoY. The UGA estimates Ukraine's wheat export potential at 26 mln t.
