Expansion of Ukraine’s oilseeds processing capacity this season may cut utilization to 60% — Spike Brokers

Amid lower sunflower yields, high energy costs, and logistical disruptions, Ukraine’s oilseed processing industry risks ending the season in losses again — even as global markets show stronger demand and rising prices for sunflower oil and meal, Spike Brokers analysts say.

Harvested sunflower area has reached 86%, with total output estimated at 8.4 million tons compared to 9.6 million tons on the same date last year.

Low yields, expensive energy, rising operational costs, and logistical bottlenecks may once again lead to financial losses for processors. The recent expansion of crushing capacity in Ukraine could push average plant utilization down to 60% or even lower.

“These factors are raising concerns on the global market and continue to support steady demand for sunflower oil. Higher prices for soybeans and soybean meal are also lending support to the broader oilseed complex,” the report noted.

In Turkey, demand for sunflower oil remains stable at $1,300–1,320 per ton for November–December delivery.

According to brokers, sunflower oil prices at ports in Northern Europe have begun to stabilize, reducing the inversion effect and signaling the formation of a forward premium in the sunflower oil market.

Stronger meal prices are creating potential for further sunflower price growth next week. Over the past week, sunflower prices rose by $10–13 per ton (including VAT), while the spot index for delivery within 30 days increased by $9 per ton (including VAT) to $697 per ton.