TOP 10 Importing Countries of Ukrainian Grain in 2020

In 2020, China for the first time topped the rating of Ukrainian grain importers having purchased about 1/5 of the value of domestic grain exports worth USD 1855 mln. Over three years, since 2018, this country has increased its purchases by more than 3x. China's share in the value of domestic grain exports increased from 8.9% in 2019 to 19.7% last year.

Total imports in 2020/21 show an 80% increase compared to the previous period. China imports corn and wheat the most, 65 and 33%, respectively.

Egypt moved to the second position as it bought Ukrainian grain worth USD 1120 mln last year, 15% less than it had in 2019. Its share in total exports of this commodity group was 11.9%.

Total imports will remain at the previous season's level, with a slight decrease of 0.37%, which may be explained by a 3.65% increase in opening stocks (carryovers). Wheat and corn lead the way in total imports: 55 and 40%, respectively.

The third and fourth positions are taken by Indonesia and Spain, each with 5.8% of Ukraine's grain shipments to foreign markets. Indonesia, which ranked sixth in 2019, moved up last year having boosted its purchases of Ukrainian grain to USD 547 mln.

Pursuant to the USDA data, in the 2020/21season total imports will remain largely at the same level as in the previous season, with a slight increase of 1.78%. The main import crop is wheat, which accounts for almost 93%.

In September 2020, Ukraine and Spain signed a memorandum of understanding and partnership in agriculture, trade and food industry. It is concluded for three years with an automatic extension for another three years.

"The document opens opportunities for regular exchange of experience and best practices for the development of the agricultural sector of both countries, as well as strengthening cooperation in agrifood trade," stated Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine, Trade Representative of Ukraine, Deputy Chairman of the International Grains Council (IGC).

The EU countries significantly reduced imports of Ukrainian corn last year. The Netherlands with 2.9 mln t ranked second among the largest importers of this grain crop.

Compared to 2019, the purchase volumes are down by 900 thou. t.

According to the USDA forecasts, Turkey is expected to reduce its cereal imports by more than 3 mln t in 2020/21, driven by expectations of a good wheat harvest as well as high carryovers, which have surged by 52% compared to 2019/20.

Wheat comes first in the grain export structure accounting for 70%, corn 24% and barley 6%.

With domestic production declining, Tunisia may intensify grain imports in the 2020/21 season to 3.8 mln t, 20% more than it was imported in the 2019/20 season and 5% higher than the 5-year average imports.

Wheat dominates the structure of cereals import with 54% of the total supply, followed by corn (24%) and barley (22%) at nearly equal proportions. While wheat and barley demonstrated the upward trend last season, corn import shrank.

Bangladesh will increase its wheat purchases from Ukraine in an attempt to make up for a possible grain supply shortfall from Russia, which announced plans to impose a higher export duty on grain from March 1.

Bangladesh is the third-largest buyer of Russian wheat after Turkey and Egypt. Under the diplomatic agreement, Russia was to supply 400 thou. t of wheat to Bangladesh by June 2021. To date, Bangladesh has purchased half of the planned volume — 200 thou. t of Russian wheat. Now the government in Dhaka has doubts that Russian will be able to deliver in full.

South Korea's wheat demand in 2019 was 3.43 mln t. 20 thou. t was produced domestically and the rest was imported.

In 2020/21, imports are projected to remain at the level of the previous season with a slight increase of 0.5%. Corn (75%) and wheat (24%) are the main imports.

One of the biggest deliveries in 2020 was by Posco International, which shipped 68 thou. t of feed wheat from Ukraine in partnership with the country's largest feed grain importer, Nonghyup Feed.

USDA forecasts Libya to import 2.7 mln t of grain in 2020/21, which is 8% lower than the previous year's purchases. More than half of all cereal imports is wheat (51%), corn and barley are booked in almost equal proportions, 26% and 22%, respectively.