Corn prices in Ukraine support upward trend in all grains — ASAP Agri

For the last month, Ukrainian prices have demonstrated a progressive strengthening. It concerns all grains, from wheat to barley and corn. The latter is the commodity that presents the dynamic. Since the beginning of the month, CPT corn prices have consolidated by +17 USD at the same time when CBOT only progressed by +4 USD… Corn is currently seen as the driver of the grain complex, the ASAP Agri analysts mark.

Amongst the factors allowing a better performance of the UA corn vs the US one, ASAP Agri considers the following:

• worries regarding the UA corn output to come. The first cuts so far covered 13% of the planted area show a 4.66 t/ha yield vs 6.63 t/ha expected by USDA;
• the recent reduction of production potential in direct competitors of Ukraine in the export arena, i.e. Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and russia.
• concerns about the European quality following the floodings in eastern Europe as well as echoes for high aflatoxin levels in neighbouring Romania and Bulgaria.

This row of factors allowed a nice reinforcement of the Ukrainian corn basis to 195 USD/MT CPT deep sea ports of Ukraine, +5 USD/MT vs. last Friday 20 September.

As a consequence of this recent surge, UA corn is now more expensive vs US CBOT, which means it will be more and more difficult for UA prices to increase without support in the international markets. Additional support from CBOT is needed for UA prices to tend to the psychological level of 200 USD on CPT. Without it, this target looks like not reachable in the short term, ASAP Agri concludes.