Jan WASDE report: a belated Christmas gift for producers — ASAP Agri

The Jan WASDE report, released last Friday, provided a significant boost to agricultural commodity markets, with corn leading the rally. While many market participants had anticipated U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout stocks below 40 MMT, the sharply lower production figure caught many by surprise, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

The USDA cut corn production by 7 MMT, significantly tightening the U.S. balance sheet. End-of-season May and July CBOT futures contracts breached 4.80 USD/bu, hitting campaign highs as funds continued to buy aggressively, the analyst says.

Similarly, U.S. 2024/25 soybean production was revised downward more sharply than expected, falling below the 120 MMT threshold. Carryout stocks are now estimated at 10.3 MMT, equivalent to just one month of consumption. While tightening domestic conditions supported U.S. soybean prices, they only reached two-month highs, unlike corn, which surged to a six-month high.

The international oilseed market remains weighed down by large supply expectations from Brazil and Argentina, tempering further price gains for soybeans.

In the case of wheat, global stock revisions showed a slight increase and an upward adjustment in U.S. winter wheat acreage dampened market enthusiasm. As a result, wheat benefitted less from the report, relying primarily on corn's bullish momentum for support.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

 ASAP Agri

"In summary, the report reinforced the bullish trend in agricultural markets. Beyond fundamentals, rising crude oil prices, which continue to resist the strengthening USD, provided additional support. As trading resumes this week, initial buyer inertia has been observed, but the physical market is expected to absorb some of the recent developments in the futures market."