2025/26 wheat market faces heavy fundamental pressures — ASAP Agri

With the USDA’s first 2025/26 projections due on 12 May, now is a good time to review the current wheat marketing year and consider what may lie ahead.

One of the biggest takeaways from 2024/25 is the sharp decline in global soft wheat trade, which dropped from 190 MMT to around 170 MMT. The direct consequence has been a build-up in ending stocks among the major exporters, up by roughly 5 MMT, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

As for the new season, several early trends are emerging among the world’s eight main wheat exporters, though much can still change. Australia and Kazakhstan are both projected to harvest lower crops compared to last season’s strong performance. In the U.S., a reduction in planted acreage also points to a likely decline. Meanwhile, production appears set to stabilize in russia, Canada, Ukraine, and Argentina.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"But the biggest wildcard could be Europe. Current conditions suggest the EU may return to its five-year average production, marking a strong recovery after a disappointing 2024 season."

All things considered, higher beginning stocks combined with solid output across major exporters point to a potentially heavier global supply in 2025/26 compared to the previous year.

On the demand side, only modest growth is expected — possibly from Turkey and China — but not nearly enough to absorb the increased supply. As a result, 2025/26 ending stocks are likely to rise again by the end of the new marketing year.

"In short, the new crop wheat market faces heavy fundamentals. The only real chance for bullish momentum may come from weather-related risks in key growing regions. Any threat to yields could spark a sharp wave of fund buying, particularly in a market where speculators are still heavily net short," says the analyst.