Between the rows: what July USDA WASDE will (and won’t) tell us — ASAP Agri
The USDA’s July WASDE, due on 11 July, marks the first report of the new season to reflect updated U.S. acreage data and final demand signals for 2024/25. Historically, this update rarely shifts market direction — but often reinforces seasonal sentiment. So, what should we expect this time, ponders Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri.
Wheat
According to Reuters’ analyst poll, U.S. 2025/26 wheat production is expected to decline slightly, from 52.3 MMT in June to an average trade estimate of 52.1 MMT. The adjustment reflects regional dryness during the growing season, particularly in winter wheat states. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 24.3 MMT, just below last month’s 24.5 MMT.
On the global stage, the USDA is not expected to significantly change its global wheat production estimate, which stood at 262.8 MMT in June. Firm estimates for russia and the EU balance out potential cuts for Ukraine.
In the absence of demand upgrades or meaningful global downgrades, the tone is likely to remain neutral to slightly bearish. Seasonally, wheat markets have tended to react negatively to the July report, which has been bearish in seven of the past ten years.
Corn
In corn, average trade expectations point to a slight pullback in U.S. 2025/26 production from 401.9 MMT to 400.1 MMT, driven by revised acreage rather than changes in yield. Yield is still expected to hold at 181 BU/AC. Despite this, the market remains well-supported by strong domestic demand. Weekly ethanol output has consistently outpaced expectations, and old-crop export sales have already exceeded USDA targets. Ending stocks are forecast at 34.4 MMT for 2024/25 and 43.7 MMT for 2025/26 — both slightly lower than USDA’s June estimates.
Globally, Brazil’s 2024/25 crop outlook continues to climb. While the USDA in June held its forecast at 130 MMT, analysts are now leaning closer to 133 MMT. Argentina’s production is expected to remain unchanged at 50 MMT.
As a result, global corn supply is tightening slightly, but not enough to significantly alter the market tone. The July WASDE has historically been bearish for corn in six of the last ten years, and without a supply shock, that trend could continue.
Soybeans
In soybeans, no major changes are expected, but the market will still scrutinize slight shifts in the balance sheet. Trade expects U.S. 2025/26 production at 117.9 MMT, nearly unchanged from the June forecast of 118.1 MMT. Yield is expected to remain at 52.5 BU/AC. Ending stocks are projected to rise slightly to 8.2 MMT for 2025/26, while the 2024/25 carryout is seen at 9.7 MMT, both marginally above June levels.
Soybean production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina may edge a bit higher, according to trade sources. Brazil’s2024/25 crop is seen at 169.4 MMT, slightly above the USDA’s June figure, while Argentina is pegged at 49.3 MMT. Together, they anchor the global supply side and limit price recovery for U.S. soybeans.
As with corn and wheat, the July WASDE has historically been a bearish signal for soybeans — seven of the past ten editions have triggered price drops, especially in years with favourable U.S. weather and rising global supply.