U.S. soybean offensive: direct challenge for Ukraine on its traditional markets — ASAP Agri

The global soybean market enters the 2025/26 season as if stepping onto a minefield: harvests are record-high, but the key trade deal still hangs in the balance, compares Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri. The 90-day truce between the U.S. and China expires on 10 November — and whether the two sides shake hands will decide if the market stays under control or is flooded by U.S. beans.

Scenario “No Deal”

If the U.S. and China fail to agree, Chinese imports of US soybeans will practically vanish. The consequences are already visible. The new season started with worrying signs: China hasn’t booked a single tonne of the new US crop, covering its September–October needs entirely with Brazilian and Argentine beans.

USDA has already cut its U.S. export forecast by more than 4 MMT, to 46.4 MMT in 2025/26, down from 51 MMT last season. And this may not be the floor: new-crop sales are currently half of last year’s pace.

Analysts warn: without a deal, the U.S. could lose another 20% of its exports. Consultancy AgResource projects a fall to 41 MMT. The American Soybean Association is blunt: “Prices are falling, costs are rising — U.S. farmers cannot survive a prolonged conflict with our biggest client.”

Searching for new markets

Losing China inevitably means a global soybean surplus and downward price pressure. We’ve seen this before: in 2018, CBOT futures collapsed from 11 to 8.50 USD/BU (–23%). The pattern repeats: in August 2025, soybeans dropped to a five-year low of 9.80 USD/BU. Without Chinese buying this fall, prices risk sliding back to those levels — or lower.

Without China, the U.S. must aggressively chase new buyers. “We’re trying to sell soybeans not just to China but to the rest of the world,” said Deputy Agriculture Secretary Steven Weiden. Potential outlets include the EU, Egypt, Turkey, the Middle East, and Asia.

There is precedent: during the first trade war in 2018–2019, lost Chinese volumes were partly offset by sales to the EU, Egypt, and even Argentina, which imported US beans for crushing. But the Chinese gap was never fully filled — and the odds are even slimmer this time.

Scenario “Partial Deal”

If a new deal locks in Chinese purchases below 20 MMT, the US will still face a significant “unsold” surplus. Better than nothing, yes: guaranteed demand would at least slow the stock build-up. Markets would welcome even limited agreements — just the headline could trigger a short-term rally. A telling example: in August, futures jumped after a tweet by the US president about a possible “fourfold” increase in Chinese purchases.

But fundamentally, such volumes are insufficient to ease pressure. Prices would remain low, though higher than in a no-deal scenario. Meanwhile, competition on alternative markets would intensify: the U.S. would still be offloading surplus into the EU, MENA, and Asia.

Impact on Ukraine

Ukraine has little to gain from U.S.–China Trade War 2.0. Its export volumes are too small to replace the U.S. in China, while at regional markets, the country faces a stronger, more aggressive competitor. Even with a modest exportable surplus (about 3 MMT forecast for 2025/26)and part of it redirected into domestic crushing due to the export duty, global price pressure will remain heavy if no deal is reached.

The U.S. still sets the tone. If they start discounting to clear surpluses (as in 2018), Ukrainian exporters will have no choice but to cut prices or shipments. Smaller volumes won’t save them: in price-sensitive markets, cheaper U.S. soy can quickly push out Ukrainian beans.

History is clear: during the first trade war, the EU “opened its doors” to U.S. beans, halving Ukraine’s sales there. Turkey was the exception, but by 2024/25, even that market saw a surge in U.S. presence. With Turkish imports now forecast to shrink, the fight for every tonne will only intensify.

In short, Ukrainian exporters will have to defend their ground head-to-head with the US — in a smaller pie, and under far tougher conditions.