Euronext hints at rebound, but will it support Ukrainian wheat prices? — ASAP Agri

Ukraine’s wheat harvest is nearing completion: as of 11 September, 98% of the area had been threshed. Official data confirms ASAP Agri’s estimate: in the 2025/26 MY, 22.2 MMT of wheat has been harvested, Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com. This is 460 KMT above the agency’s June forecast (21.74 MMT), made after a crop tour of key regions.

The difference falls within the declared model error margin (±500 KMT), underscoring the accuracy of ASAP Agri’s methodology: even under difficult harvest weather, the forecast closely matched official results.

ASAP Agri forecasts 2025/26 wheat exports at 15 MMT, though this remains 0.6 MMT below last year’s level. However, early-season demand for Ukrainian wheat remains sluggish. As of 17 September, Ukraine shipped 3.85 MMT of wheat — down 27% y/y.

The initial price increase, driven by delayed harvests and rains in western Ukraine, reduced the competitiveness of Ukrainian grain in key destinations — MENA and Southeast Asia. But decisive pressure came from russian wheat: in major destinations, 12.5% protein russian wheat has been offered at nearly the same price as Ukrainian 11.5%. For buyers, the choice is obvious — more protein for the same money.

In Egypt this week, Ukrainian exporters continued to offer 11.5% wheat at 249–251 USD/MT CIF for September–October shipment, while earlier in the week, a deal was reported for russian 12.5% wheat at 252 USD/MT CIF. Offers for Ukrainian 11.5% wheat were also heard at 248–250 USD/MT CIF Iskenderun, but russian 12.5% wheat was offered at the same 248 USD/MT level — once again leaving Ukrainian origin at a disadvantage.

As a result of excessive global competition and the influx of new-crop supply, Ukrainian wheat prices — especially milling — have been declining in recent weeks, leading to a weaker spot basis (the spread between Ukrainian 11.5% CPT and the nearby Euronext futures). As of 17 September, the basis had fallen to –9 USD/MT. By contrast, in July–August, it mostly remained in positive territory. At the same time, rising freight costs have limited sellers’ ability to further cut CIF offers. This created a gap: domestic CPT prices adjusted downward more quickly, while export CIF levels reacted more slowly.

Against this backdrop, a –9 USD/MT basis looks more like еру “upper comfort limit” for buyers rather than an incentive to purchase. For exporters, it still falls short of making Ukrainian wheat competitive on the world market. The current reality — strong pressure from russia and passive importers — is pushing the Ukrainian market toward a weaker basis, closer to –15…–20 USD/MT.

Meanwhile, after months of decline, Euronext is finally showing early signs of stabilization. The December contract is holding near 192 EUR/MT, with technical indicators suggesting the market may be finding a “floor.” Key support lies in the 187–185 EUR/MT range, and if this level holds, a rebound to 196–200 EUR/MT looks plausible. For Ukrainian wheat, this would mean further weakening of the basis while opening space for a stabilization/recovery in CPT prices. However, the potential for growth will remain limited by abundant global supply, confirmed by the September USDA report, and subdued importer interest. Still, some optimism is added by the fact that кussian wheat prices have also begun to rise.

In the longer term, the outlook is less optimistic. Euronext remains well below its 200-day moving average (218 EUR/MT), confirming that the broader trend is still bearish. Even if a technical rebound occurs, breaking through the strong resistance zone at 210–218 EUR/MT without fresh drivers — such as stronger demand or geopolitical restrictions — will be difficult. Thus, the coming weeks may bring a short “breather,” but the risk of new lows remains in place.