Ukrainian soybeans 2025: production forecast cut to 5.8 MMT — ASAP Agri
At the end of September, ASAP Agri lowered its forecast for soybean production in Ukraine in the 2025/26 season to 5.8 MMT, down from 6.2 MMT a month earlier. This is significantly below the 7.2 MMT harvested last year. The key factor behind the downgrade is the expected decline in yields to 2.44 MT/HA, which is now confirmed by field data.
As of 2 October, Ukraine had already harvested 1.01 MHA of soybeans (46.3% of planted area), producing 2.23 MMT with an average yield of 2.22 MT/HA. For comparison, on the same date last year, 1.97 MHA (73% of area) had been harvested, producing 4.28 MMT with an average yield of 2.28 MT/HA. This year’s pace is much slower: weekly progress amounted to +11 percentage points, compared with +13 points the previous week. The slowest progress is observed in western regions (Lviv, Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi), where rains and excessive moisture are delaying fieldwork.
The sharpest yield declines continue to be recorded in central and eastern regions: Poltava is averaging just 1.52 MT/HA, Kirovohrad — 1.18 MT/HA, Kharkiv — 1.4 MT/HA. In contrast, yields are much better in the west: Rivne is averaging 2.42 MT/HA, Chernivtsi — 2.79 MT/HA, Volyn — 2.9 MT/HA, while Lviv leads with 3.34 MT/HA. However, higher performance in western regions is unlikely to fully offset the losses in central production hubs.
The updated forecast from ASAP Agri differs significantly from that of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. In September, USDA was still projecting a record 7.6 MMT, based on 3 MHA of planted area and an average yield of 2.53 MT/HA — figures that look increasingly disconnected from field reality. Meanwhile, the Foreign Agricultural Service of USDA (FAS USDA) went in the opposite direction and in August sharply cut its forecast to 4.9 MMT, also lowering the planted area estimate to 2.08 MHA.
Victoria Blazhko
Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri
"Against this backdrop, ASAP Agri’s forecast of 5.8 MMT appears the most balanced: it reflects the decline in potential without sliding into excessive pessimism."
The situation is no better for the Ukrainian sunflower. Due to weak results in Odesa, Dnipro, Poltava, and Kirovohrad regions, ASAP Agri lowered its sunflower seed production forecast for this season from 12.8 to 12 MMT.
Christina Serebriakova
CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers
“We clearly see the impact of heat stress. Only the western regions are in relatively better shape, but their share is too small to save the overall result.”
Given the actual field results, we expect the USDA will revise its production forecasts for both soybeans and sunflower seed in Ukraine downward for this season in the upcoming reports.