If we add even a small EUDR premium to Ukrainian soybean meal now, we won’t sell a single ton — analysts

The European Commission has decided not to postpone the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and instead proposed only a six-month transition period for adaptation. The new rules will affect exporters of soybeans, coffee, cocoa, palm oil, timber, and other raw materials linked to ecosystem risks, according to ASAP Agri.

The European Commission confirmed it would not delay the introduction of the EUDR, aimed at restricting imports of products associated with deforestation. Instead of a one-year postponement, Brussels proposed a six-month transition period for companies and control bodies to adapt, as well as simplified requirements for small operators.

The regulation seeks to reduce Europe’s impact on global deforestation. It covers commodities traditionally associated with environmental risks — soy, palm oil, cocoa, coffee, beef, and timber.

Large and medium-sized companies must comply with the new rules starting 30 December 2025, with enforcement expected to begin in mid-2026. Small and microenterprises will have another year, until 30 December 2026. The European Parliament and the EU Council are expected to adopt the final amendments by the end of 2025.

For small businesses in low-risk countries, simplified conditions are envisaged — instead of the full due diligence package, they will be required to submit only a one-time declaration of product origin.

If the timeline remains unchanged, market participants are expected to begin building EUDR-compliant supply chains in 2026. Analysts estimate that the premium for EUDR-certified soybean oil and meal could reach $10–15 per tonne, depending on verification costs.

“If we add even a small EUDR premium to Ukrainian soymeal now, we won’t sell a single tonne,” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers.

According to analysts, market sentiment remains cautious — companies are reluctant to pay for “green” certification in advance, recalling last year’s situation when premature expectations of the EUDR rollout created a short-lived “virtual premium” of $25–30 per tonne, which quickly disappeared after the regulation was delayed.