CBOT soybeans surge on China’s 12 MMT pledge: relief today, reality tomorrow — ASAP Agri
In the heart of the American Midwest, harvesters move steadily through golden soybean fields under calm autumn skies. But far from the combines, politics took center stage. On 30 October 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping finally met in South Korea to revive trade ties — and with them, market hopes.
Following the meeting, Trump announced that China would buy “tremendous” amounts of U.S. soybeans as part of a broader trade deal, saying purchases would begin “immediately.” Beijing confirmed plans to expand agricultural trade but avoided mentioning soybeans, marks Viktoria Blazhko, head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri.
Later, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent provided the first concrete figure: China has agreed to purchase 12 MMT of soybeans this year, offering long-awaited relief to American farmers. He added that for the next three years, China will commit to buying at least 25 MMT annually — a pledge that, if fulfilled, would mark a structural return of Chinese demand to the U.S. market.
The 12 MMT figure matches what most analysts had anticipated — substantial enough to signal a thaw, but far from a full recovery to pre-trade-war volumes. China’s crushers are already well-supplied after record imports from Brazil and Argentina, while domestic meal demand remains tepid. With high inventories and a firm South American pipeline, the agreement so far looks more like symbolic reassurance than structural revival.
The industry is also still seeking clarity on tariffs. It remains uncertain whether China’s import duties on U.S. soybeans will be lifted or merely suspended — a key factor that will determine how much of the deal turns into actual trade.
Market reaction and technical outlook
CBOT soybeans posted their strongest weekly gain since April, lifted by optimism over the China–U.S. agreement. January 2026 futures settled at 11.07 USD/BU on 30 October, up 12 ¢ on the day. The rally extended for a fourth day, earlier fueled by reports that China booked around 180 KMT of U.S. soybeans — the first confirmed purchase of the 2025/26 crop — along with a softer dollar, firmer crude oil, and speculative fund inflows, which pushed prices to their highest level in fifteen months.
Technically, the rally remains impressive yet fragile.
"After weeks of sideways trade, soybeans broke through key resistance levels, signaling the first genuine bullish shift since early 2024. A brief correction toward 10.80–10.60 USD/BU looks likely as traders lock in gains, yet the broader structure remains constructive," says Viktoria Blazhko.
Medium-term momentum, however, is decisively bullish: a sustained base above 10.60 USD//BU could pave the way toward 11.35–11.50 USD/BU, supported by improving export prospects once tariff clarity emerges.
If the deal commitments materialize and South American weather remains neutral, futures could gradually build toward 11.50–12.00 USD/BU by early 2026. Conversely, failure to follow through on Chinese purchases or renewed trade tensions would quickly erode sentiment and invite a return toward the 10.40–10.20 USD/BU range.
What this means for Ukraine
For Ukrainian soybeans, China’s renewed purchases from the U.S. are rather supportive. If American supply really shifts toward China, American exporters will likely scale back competition in Egypt, Turkey, and the EU — key destinations for Ukrainian soybean products. This could support global prices, improve crush margins, and allow Ukrainian processors to strengthen positions in nearby markets.
Still, much depends on execution. Numbers are good, but ships make the difference. The 12 MMT pledge gives traders the figures they’ve waited for — yet not the conviction they crave. The deal may reopen dialogue, but until U.S. cargoes are loaded and ships actually sail for China, soybeans will remain caught between promises and proof.