Ahead of November WASDE: what to expect? — ASAP Agri

When the USDA releases its long-delayed November WASDE on Friday, 14 November, the market will finally receive its first major update to global grain and oilseed balances since 12 September. With the October report canceled by the U.S. government shutdown, traders approach this release blindfolded and tense. The absence of fresh data and the unusually long gap between updates make this one of the most unpredictable November reports in years, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.

Historically, November tends to support corn while weighing on soybeans and wheat. This year, those seasonal patterns may not apply.

Corn: lower yield, larger stocks

The November WASDE usually offers a modestly supportive signal for corn — historically carrying a 55% chance of prompting a positive market reaction. This time, traders are less convinced.

Analysts expect only a slight yield reduction. November revisions typically average around –2 BU/AC, and Bloomberg’s survey suggests a U.S. yield of 184 BU/AC (11.56 MT/HA), down from 186.7 BU/AC in September. This pegs total production at 16.556 BBU (≈420.8 MMT) — about 6.3 MMT below September’s estimate.

On the demand side, ethanol use is likely steady. Feed demand may be trimmed, while exports could see a minor upward nudge.

But even with a yield cut, ending stocks are expected to rise. U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks are projected at 2.168 BBU (55.1 MMT) versus 53.6 MMT in September — the highest since the 1980s. The driver is the larger-than-expected 2024/25 carryout, following the September quarterly stocks figure of 38.9 MMT, far above the 33.66 MMT used previously.

Globally, 2025/26 ending stocks are also set to edge higher to 282.8 MMT from 281.4 MMT, reinforcing a comfortably supplied market.

Overall, the corn outlook tilts mildly bearish, as any small yield U.S. cut is likely to be overshadowed by the increase in ending stocks.

Soybeans: foggy and fragile

November is typically the most volatile month for soybeans and historically comes with a 64% chance of a negative reaction. This year’s edition may be even choppier.

With weeks of missing export sales data and political noise clouding Chinese demand expectations, the market is operating with unusually limited visibility.

Analysts expect a U.S. yield of 53.1 BU/AC (3.57 MT/HA), placing 2025/26 production at 4.271 BBU (≈116.38 MMT) — roughly 0.7 MMT below September.

The domestic crush continues to impress and could be revised slightly higher. Exports, meanwhile, have lagged badly and would normally argue for a downward adjustment. But China’s 12 MMT purchase pledge complicates the picture, potentially staying the USDA’s hand. As a result, this section of the balance sheet sits firmly in the realm of uncertainty.

U.S. ending stocks are projected at around 306 MBU (8.33 MMT), up from 300 MBU. Global ending stocks in 2025/26 may also inch higher to 124.21 MMT.

With sentiment fragile and no clear bullish catalysts, even a moderately bearish report could be enough to pressure the soybean market lower.

Wheat: heavy stocks, softer tone

Wheat tends to be the least volatile market in the November WASDE — and historically carries a 59% probability of a negative reaction. This year’s setup fits the pattern.

U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks are expected to reach 869 MBU (23.7 MMT) — the highest since 2019/20. Exports remain solid, tracking at 46.8% of the annual USDA forecast, well above the five-year average. But feed use may fall sharply to 90 MBU (2.45 MMT) from 3.27 MMT in September.

Globally, production may be lifted modestly on upward revisions for Argentina, russia, and Australia. World ending stocks in 2024/25could rise to 266.1 MMT, up from 264.1 MMT.

Taken together, the wheat outlook remains soft, shaped by ample supplies and heavier inventories both in the U.S. and abroad.