Gorbachov: Corn is currently the most vulnerable crop. A Panamax shipment to china does not change the situation

Ahead of the New Year holidays, the market is traditionally entering a period of low activity, with little momentum expected at least until mid-January. At the same time, a significant share of buyers in certain countries has already secured contracts through March. As a result, there is currently no demand strong enough to drive prices higher, Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) President Mykola Gorbachov told Latifundist.com.

“Corn is the most vulnerable crop right now. Global production has increased, particularly in the United States, supply is abundant, and there is no additional demand for such volumes. At the current export pace of 2.5–3 million tons per month, we risk ending the season with carryover stocks of 4–5 million tons. Individual shipments, such as the recent vessel to China, do not change the picture. If it were 10 vessels, we would see some revival. But 58,000 tons is almost insignificant,” he said.

According to Gorbachov, wheat looks somewhat more stable and “is still moving.” Export volumes of around 16 million tons for the season are achievable, with a possible deviation of plus or minus one million tons. Overall, however, the external market environment is currently unfavourable for Ukrainian exports.

The situation is further complicated by infrastructure and security risks. Vessels are forced to wait for weeks to berth for loading while remaining in high-risk zones. This automatically increases insurance costs, which also puts downward pressure on prices. Combined, these factors make the market even more cautious, Horbachov noted.

“As for the reduction in purchases by major players, I would say the seasonal factor prevails here. At the same time, rising risks — due to attacks, longer transit times, and the danger of damage in ports and at terminals — are forcing each company to reassess its risk-management model,” he said.

Scenarios such as “deliver to the port and wait for shipment” have effectively stopped working. This discourages grain accumulation in ports and, as a result, reduces procurement activity by large traders, the UGA president added.

“Today, medium and large players are increasingly focused on accumulating volumes at inland elevators rather than on port-based CPT–FOB logistics. Under current conditions, this model has become too risky,” Gorbachov said.

He also highlighted the specific risks facing the vegetable oil market. Compared with the number of grain storage terminals, oil storage facilities are dozens of times fewer. Therefore, any destruction of oil-related infrastructure creates a much deeper logistical crisis.

“Whether there is a deliberate strategy behind this is difficult to say. I do not believe decisions are made at the level of some ‘general staff.’ Rather, it looks like situational strikes: if they see an object that may resemble a storage facility, they strike it,” Gorbachov concluded.