Weather risks failed to heat up the wheat market: Euronext futures are not settling above €190/t — ASAP Agri

Over the past week, the grain market has seen the deployment of heavy artillery in the form of arguments about weather risks for the new harvest. This is what heats up futures the fastest. But even with this set of news, March futures on Euronext — the key benchmark for the Ukrainian market — cannot consolidate above €190/t. This was reported by Victoria Blazhko, head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri, in a comment to Latifundist.com.

“The wheat market is currently behaving like an athlete in the final meters of a race: it is running, straining, trying to accelerate — but the finish line stubbornly refuses to get any closer,” she notes.

Yes, the strong euro is putting pressure on the competitiveness of European grain. But that is only the backdrop. It is not the main reason why wheat is struggling to rise, says Blazhko.

The chart shows that the wheat market has been moving downward for a long time: each attempt at growth ends faster and at lower levels than the previous one. Average prices in recent weeks remain significantly lower than a few months ago, indicating that excess supply dominates demand. This is more of a market seeking equilibrium after a prolonged decline than one preparing for growth.

That is why the key question now is not so much the cold weather in the fields as whether the market is trying to use the weather as a last resort for short-term growth without real risks to the harvest.

Last week, the market tried to play the “freezing” card for winter wheat. But the weather itself quickly debunked this story, and the price immediately went down. In most key regions, critical conditions either did not occur, or the window of risk quickly closed thanks to snow and warming temperatures.

In Russia, the January frosts without snow looked alarming, but the soil temperature did not reach critical levels, and snow appeared in key regions in time. Risks remain only locally — in the Volga region and the center due to thin snow and possible ice crust, but there is no confirmed damage.

In Ukraine, a thaw is expected before the new cold snap, but no complete snowmelt is forecast, and soil temperatures remain above critical levels. The increased risk is concentrated in the steppe and southeastern regions without snow and with ice crusts — this is more a matter of local stress than mass freezing.

In the US, Arctic invasions have heightened concerns, but most hard winter wheat areas had snow cover. The most vulnerable areas remain the northern regions and areas with thin snow and ice crust.

Frosts in the EU were mostly accompanied by snow, which protected crops. Winter wheat entered winter in good condition, so mass freezing is not expected in the baseline forecasts for the 2026 harvest.

"The conclusion is simple. The market saw ‘frost on the map’ and tried to interpret it as a threat to the harvest. But agrometeorology says otherwise: the soil in Russia has not reached dangerous levels, snow in the US and Ukraine mainly protects crops, and the EU is not sending any alarming signals. The theoretical risk window still exists, and the price has already shown that without its realization, there are no grounds for growth," says Blazhko.

A window of real weather risk may appear in February, with a combination of thaw, snowmelt, and a new Arctic cold snap. But so far, this has not happened, so wheat growth is based on weather history, which looks alarming but is quickly losing its force.

Instead, the determining factor for the market right now is balance, not weather. It is the stocks in key exporting countries — Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, and the US — that are shaping global supply pressure and futures behavior.

The 2025/26 season is indicative: Argentina, Canada, and Kazakhstan have harvested record crops, Australia and the EU have harvested their second-largest crops in history, and Russia has harvested its third-largest crop. This is a synchronous wave of oversupply, not a weather anomaly.

According to Blazhko, stocks at the end of the season in these countries are reaching high levels, and the ratio of stocks to consumption is reaching 18–19% — a well-supplied market with no shortages. That is why Euronext futures are bottoming out and rebounding, but they lack the foundation for sustainable growth.

As long as there are no serious weather risks, balance remains a key factor. The seasonal bottom has probably already been formed, but the potential for further price growth is limited due to global market oversaturation, the analyst added.