Mediterranean shift: Italy overtakes Spain as top EU buyer of Ukrainian corn, already eyeing new crop — ASAP Agri
A quiet yet telling rotation is unfolding in Ukraine’s corn export structure to the EU. Symbolically, the key transformation is taking place between two Mediterranean neighbours — Spain and Italy — which for decades accounted for 30–60% of Ukrainian corn purchases within the bloc. While Spain remained the largest importer for many seasons, trade flows over the past two years have gradually shifted toward Italy, as Spain increasingly diversifies sourcing across alternative origins, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
Over the last 10 seasons, Italy’s share in Ukrainian corn imports to the EU averaged about 15% compared with 27% for Spain. However, the structure began to change in 2024/25, when Italy’s share rose to 31% versus 26% for Spain. In the current season, the rotation has intensified — Italy already accounts for 46% of Ukrainian corn imports to the EU, while Spain’s share has declined to 23%.
Shipment volumes confirm the trend. In most seasons, Italy remained a secondary buyer with imports of 0.7–1.7 MMT, while Spain typically purchased 2–4 MMT, peaking near 6 MMT in 2023/24. The turning point came in 2022/23, when shipments to Italy climbed to 2.5 MMT and reached 3 MMT in 2023/24. Meanwhile, Spanish purchases dropped to around 2 MMT in 2024/25 following a record season, allowing Italy to overtake Spain for the first time. In the current season, as of 23 February, Ukraine has already shipped 2.1 MMT to Italy versus 1.1 MMT to Spain, confirming the new Mediterranean flow structure.
Why Ukraine began losing Spain
Ukraine had long been Spain’s core corn supplier, holding an average share of roughly 51% over the past decade and exceeding 70% in several peak seasons. However, 2024/25 marked a shift toward diversification, as U.S. corn rapidly gained presence alongside Ukrainian and Brazilian supply, reducing Ukraine’s share to about 40%. Imports from the U.S. rose to 2.6 MMT, effectively matching Ukrainian volumes, while this season, Spain has already purchased around 2.4 MMT of U.S. corn compared with 0.8 MMT from Ukraine.
For Spanish buyers, price, supply reliability, and the ability to quickly cover large livestock-sector requirements remain decisive. Periods of Ukrainian price uncompetitiveness opened a window for the U.S., which was able to offer substantial volumes under attractive conditions. Structural features of the Spanish market also matter: a large livestock sector oriented toward bulk purchases of low-cost feed demonstrates high GMO tolerance, effectively removing barriers for U.S. origin. As a result, the U.S. has become a natural alternative, while Brazil adds competitive pressure and supports diversification.
Why Italy provides stable demand for Ukrainian corn
Italy’s import market operates under a somewhat different logic, where the GMO factor plays a structural role. Despite harmonized EU regulation, consumer sentiment and premium supply-chain requirements create a more cautious stance toward genetically modified corn in the country, limiting certain alternative origins.
Victoria Blazhko
Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri
"Within this environment, Ukrainian corn has secured a key niche. Over the past decade, Ukraine supplied around 70% of Italy’s imports, with shares exceeding 80% in several seasons and reaching a record 87% last year. Even in the current marketing year, Ukrainian origin still accounts for roughly 70% of imports (1.6 MMT as of 22 February)."
Ukraine’s strong position is also supported by logistical proximity and the ability to trade large parcels, reinforcing a stable procurement channel in which GMO acts as a market filter rather than a demand driver. In this respect, Italy partly resembles Turkey, where regulatory specifics also support strong positions for Ukrainian corn.
Absent regulatory changes, Italy is likely to remain a key buyer of Ukrainian corn with annual volumes near 3 MMT. Early interest in the new crop confirms the market’s readiness to build forward positions. As of 25 February, buyer indications stood around 243 USD/MT CIF ECI for November shipments, while Ukrainian offers were near 247 USD/MT. In the old-crop segment, buyers targeted 240–242 USD/MT CIF ECI for April and 244–246 USD/MT for July, whereas sellers maintained firmer ideas near 249 USD/MT for March–May shipments.