Ukraine’s 2025/26 barley exports set to hit near two-decade low — ASAP Agri
The Ukrainian barley market this season leaves little room for interpretation — it simply reflects one fact: this is the weakest season in nearly two decades. As of mid-April, exports have reached just 1.4 MMT. With just over two months remaining until the end of the 2025/26 season, the market has effectively stalled, as demand remains weak, deal activity is limited, and traders increasingly shift their focus to the new season, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
Recent export dynamics are particularly telling. Between January and March, Ukraine shipped only about 80 KMT of barley, with just an additional 15 KMT exported by mid-April.
According to ASAP Agri estimates, total exports for the 2025/26 season are likely to only marginally exceed 1.5 MMT. This would be about 700 KMT lower than last season and mark the lowest level since at least the 2007/08 MY. In this context, the current season is not merely weak — it confirms a longer-term trend of barley gradually losing its role within Ukraine’s export structure.
Against this backdrop, USDA projections appear overly optimistic. The agency continues to forecast Ukrainian barley exports at 2.2 MMT for 2025/26, well above current shipment trends. Given the pace of exports, a downward revision looks increasingly inevitable. This would, in turn, lead to higher ending stocks, which ASAP Agri already estimates at around 1.5 MMT, adding further pressure ahead of the new season.
What is driving the decline in Ukrainian barley exports
The current situation is not a temporary dip, but the result of structural changes set in motion after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The war disrupted both production and logistics chains, becoming the primary driver behind the sharp contraction in export volumes. Following the peak of 5.7 MMT in the 2021/22 season, the market has entered a phase of steady decline.
At the same time, the supply side has also shifted. Barley has long been one of the least profitable crops, and under current conditions, farmers are increasingly reallocating acreage toward more attractive alternatives. As a result, declining production has coincided with shrinking export markets, creating sustained pressure on shipments.
A key factor behind the reshaping of export geography has been the change in market access conditions. In the early stages of the full-scale war, the EU effectively acted as a buffer for Ukrainian grain exports by removing trade restrictions and significantly increasing imports. However, the reintroduction of import quotas on Ukrainian grains as of 6 June 2025 reversed this dynamic.
Access to the EU market has narrowed sharply. The bloc’s share in Ukrainian barley exports fell from 16% to just 4%, while volumes declined to 55 KMT as of mid-April, compared to 344 KMT a year earlier and over 1 MMT in previous peak seasons. Europe, once a key destination, has effectively disappeared from Ukraine’s barley export map this season.
Looking ahead, prospects remain limited. Despite expectations of a slight decline in EU barley production in 2026 following last year’s strong crop, domestic supply is still sufficient, suggesting that import demand — including from Ukraine — will likely remain subdued.
In addition, demand from China has declined sharply. While China imported 685 KMT of Ukrainian barley in the 2024/25 MY, purchases fell to just 251 KMT in 2025/26. The key driver was a record barley harvest in Australia, which shifted demand toward that origin, as Australian supplies proved more competitive both in terms of price and logistics.
Despite this, the share of East Asia — with China remaining the key buyer — has increased in Ukraine’s export structure. However, this rise does not reflect stronger demand, but rather a decline in shipments to other regions, particularly North Africa. It is in this region that demand weakened most visibly this season: the share fell from 27% to 14%, while exports dropped from 598 KMT in 2024/25 to 191 KMT in 2025/26 as of mid-April. Libya reduced its purchases by nearly half, while Algeria’s imports declined by almost threefold.
At the same time, it is important to consider the base effect: last season’s figure was unusually high, reflecting a temporary surge in the region’s role. In the current season, volumes have not only declined relative to that elevated base but have also fallen to among the lowest levels in recent years, underscoring the diminishing importance of North Africa in Ukraine’s export geography.
Against this backdrop, the overall export structure is increasingly reverting to a pattern seen around a decade ago, characterized by a minimal EU share and a dominant Middle Eastern presence. The Middle East has emerged as the primary driver of demand for Ukrainian barley in the 2025/26 season, importing 655 KMT, exceeding the total for the entire previous marketing year. Overall, the region accounted for roughly half of Ukraine’s barley exports this season.
Among key buyers, Turkey stands out, having imported nearly 300 KMT amid a weaker domestic crop, alongside Lebanon, which purchased a record 110 KMT. New destinations such as Iraq and Syria have also appeared, although their volumes remain relatively small and insufficient to offset the loss of major markets.
However, even this support factor appears temporary. Turkey, one of the main demand drivers this season, may sharply reduce imports in 2026. Turkish barley production is expected to rise significantly to around 8.5 MMT in 2026, up by roughly 3 MMT y/y. Even ahead of the harvest, these expectations are already shaping market sentiment and pointing to reduced import needs, thereby limiting prospects for Ukrainian barley exports.
Ultimately, the emergence of new buyers does not alter the broader picture. The 2025/26 season is illustrative in this regard: it not only highlights a weak performance but also confirms a structural shift. Ukrainian barley is gradually moving out of the category of mass export grain crops and increasingly approaching a niche segment, with no clear signs of a near-term reversal.