USDA: Ukraine to remain world’s leading sunflower oil exporter and narrow gap with Russia

According to the USDA forecast for the 2026/27 season, Ukraine will increase sunflower seed production, sunflower oil output, and exports after a weaker 2025/26 MY. At the same time, Russia will retain its status as the world’s largest sunflower oil producer.

Sunflower Seed: Ukraine Recovering After a Weak Season

The USDA projects Ukraine’s sunflower seed production at 13.5 mln t in the 2026/27 MY, compared to 11 mln t in 2025/26 MY. This means the harvest could increase by 2.5 mln t, or nearly 23%. As a result, Ukraine is expected to recover from this season’s 10-year low in sunflower production.

Russia is also expected to increase production — from 17.5 mln t to 19.2 mln t (+1.7 mln t or about 10%).

In the 2025/26 MY, Russia outpaced Ukraine by 6.5 mln t in sunflower seed production, but in the new season the gap could narrow to 5.7 mln t.

Sunflower Oil: Ukraine Regaining Volumes

The USDA expects the strongest recovery in sunflower oil production. Ukraine’s sunflower oil output in the 2026/27 MY is forecast at 5.633 mln t, compared to 4.73 mln t in 2025/26 MY. This is an increase of 903 KMT, or around 19%.

Russia’s production is also projected to grow — from 6.897 mln t to 7.517 mln t (+620 KMT or 9%).

The production gap between the two countries is expected to narrow:

• 2025/26 MY — 2.17 mln t;
• 2026/27 MY — 1.88 mln t.

Sunflower Oil Exports: Ukraine Expanding Shipments Faster Than Russia

The USDA estimates Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports in the 2026/27 MY at 5.1 mln t, compared to 4.375 mln t in 2025/26 MY. This represents an increase of 725 KMT, or 16.6%.

Russia’s exports are forecast at 4.85 mln t versus 4.2 mln t a season earlier (+650 KMT or 15.5%).

Although Russia remains the largest sunflower oil producer, Ukraine continues to lead in exports:

• Ukraine — 5.1 mln t;
• Russia — 4.85 mln t.

The export gap in Ukraine’s favour could reach around 250 KMT in the new season.

Context:

• Since late 2025, Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian sunflower oil production and storage facilities. According to Stepan Kapshuk, Russia is deliberately destroying Ukraine’s oilseed processing industry.
• In late 2025, Russia struck the vegetable oil transshipment terminal of Allseeds, resulting in the loss of thousands of tons of sunflower oil. One person was killed in the attack.
• On the night of December 24-25, 2025, the assets of Kernel in Odesa region came under Russian attack. The Illichivsk Oil and Fat Combine (IOFC) in Chornomorsk was hit. Overall, the company lost 500 tons of oil due to drone attacks between October and December.
• On January 5, 2026, Russia struck a Bunge plant in Dnipro. Around 300 tons of oil spilled onto nearby roads.
• On April 27, Russian forces hit the RISOIL terminal in the port of Chornomorsk. According to company co-owner Shota Khadzhyshvili, about 1,000 tons of sunflower oil leaked from the destroyed storage tank.
• On the night of May 3, a drone attack damaged a Kernel terminal in Chornomorsk. Storage tanks were damaged, causing a spill of more than 1,100 tons of oil, which was quickly contained without environmental consequences. Due to fire damage and destroyed infrastructure, the facility suspended operations, while one employee was injured.