Agribusinesses assess impact of western Ukraine drought on wheat yields

Agricultural producers in western Ukraine are reporting a critical rainfall deficit that has already affected the condition of early grain crops. In some farms, only 19–52 mm of rainfall has been recorded since March, with expected yield losses estimated at 20–30%.

According to Yaroslav Mazurenko, Head of the Agricultural Production Department at Volyn-Zerno-Product, the most severe conditions are observed in Volyn region, southern Rivne region, northern Ternopil region, and parts of Lviv region.

"For comparison, the normal rainfall for March alone is around 40 mm, while May and June should each receive close to 100 mm. Instead, we've had just 44 mm over the entire period. The moisture deficit is enormous," he said.

Similar conditions have been reported by other producers. Fields operated by Zakhidnyi Bug have received only 19–52 mm of rainfall since March. According to Dmytro Kyselov, the company's Deputy Director for Agricultural Development, the drought has already reduced crop density, particularly on calcareous, peat, and sandy soils.

At the same time, Oleksandr Kholod, CEO of VITAGRO PARTNER, said the situation is not equally severe across the entire region.

"The situation is certainly abnormal in Volyn and Rivne regions, but I wouldn't describe the whole of western Ukraine as being in critical condition. Ternopil and Lviv regions look somewhat better, while Khmelnytskyi region is in much better shape in terms of both soil moisture and overall crop conditions," Kholod said.

According to farmers' estimates, the drought is already affecting yield prospects. Farmer Ihor Zvarych expects grain production to decline by around 30%. Volyn-Zerno-Product forecasts wheat yields to be approximately 20% below target. The company harvested 10,000 hectares of wheat last year, achieving a record yield of 9.2 t/ha. Under normal conditions, farms in the Polissia and Forest-Steppe zones typically harvest 7.5–8.0 t/ha, but this season yields may fall to around 7.0 t/ha.

Meanwhile, Zakhidnyi Bug estimates potential losses for early grain crops at approximately 18%.

Farmers say the main risks include poor grain filling, lower test weight, and reduced thousand-kernel weight. However, VITAGRO PARTNER notes that drought stress could also increase the protein content of wheat, potentially improving its quality despite lower yields.