Ukraine may face weaker wheat demand from key buyers in 2026/27 marketing year, analyst says

Ukraine could face weaker demand for its wheat from three key importers—Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia—in the 2026/27 marketing year, while Russia's aggressive pricing policy is expected to add further pressure on exports, Inna Stepanenko, lead grain market analyst at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Ukraine exported nearly 14 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year. Of that total, around 4 million tons, or 29%, were shipped in the final quarter of the season, an unusually high share for the closing months of a marketing year.

By comparison, Ukraine exported 15.6 million tons of wheat in 2024/25, but only 2.6 million tons, or 16% of the seasonal total, were shipped in the last quarter.

At the same time, the importance of Ukraine's three largest wheat buyers increased significantly. Egypt's share of total Ukrainian wheat exports rose to 27% in 2025/26 from 14% a year earlier, while Algeria's increased to 20% from 12% and Indonesia's to 15% from 10%.

Together, the three countries accounted for 62% of Ukraine's wheat exports in 2025/26, compared with 36% in the previous season.

Strong exports at the end of the season helped reduce carryover stocks. ASAP Agri estimates wheat carryover stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season at 2.3 million tons. However, they remain about 1 million tons higher than a year earlier, increasing downward pressure on prices at the start of the new season as the new harvest enters the market.

The outlook could become more challenging for Ukrainian exporters in 2026/27. According to Stepanenko, larger opening wheat stocks in Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia, combined with higher domestic production in Egypt and Algeria, are likely to reduce those countries' import demand. Similar expectations are reflected in forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Stepanenko said Egypt has already become noticeably less active in the market after making large purchases of imported and domestically produced wheat, suggesting Ukrainian exports to the country may remain limited at the beginning of the new marketing year.

Meanwhile, buyers in Indonesia and Algeria continue to show interest in wheat purchases.

Competition on the global market will remain another challenge for Ukraine. Despite expectations of lower wheat production outside the Black Sea region, grain supplies within the region are expected to remain ample. Russia is already offering wheat at aggressively low prices, strengthening its competitive position, particularly in the Egyptian market.