Ukraine may need storage for additional 10-12 million tons of grain, minister says

Ukraine may require additional storage capacity for 10-12 million tons of grain if export delays persist, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said, adding that the current disruption to Black Sea shipping differs fundamentally from the full-scale blockade seen in 2022.

"There is no 100% blockade of shipping today. That alone distinguishes the current situation from 2022, when dozens of vessels were trapped in Mykolaiv. Of course, ships need to be able to enter ports as well as leave them," Vysotskyi told reporters.

Since 2022, Ukraine has expanded port infrastructure on the Danube, developed a network of dry ports, improved road and rail links with the European Union, and significantly increased its rail wagon fleet.

"Road logistics to the European Union are now well established, while freight rates are at their lowest level in the past five or six years. There are also enough rail wagons because businesses have substantially expanded their fleets. We also have the experience and understanding of how to market and export products via alternative routes," Vysotskyi said.

According to the minister, Ukraine's record monthly export volume without using deep-water ports was about 3.5 million tons, a level the country could theoretically reach again.

However, he acknowledged that alternative export routes cannot fully replace deep-water ports because they have lower capacity and higher transportation costs, with the additional expenses ultimately borne by farmers and exporters.

"In the medium term, there is no substitute for deep-water ports and maritime shipping. But in the short term, this does not mean exports will stop. Alternative routes are more expensive, but they exist and can operate. The situation is difficult, but it is not a catastrophe. It is another challenging phase of the war," he said.

Vysotskyi said Ukraine currently has sufficient grain storage capacity for the expected harvest of spring crops. Harvesting started later than usual because of weather conditions, and farmers have not yet reached the midpoint of the campaign. A large corn harvest is expected this autumn, but storage capacity is still considered adequate at this stage.

If export bottlenecks continue, however, Ukraine may need additional storage for 10-12 million tons of grain.

"We will begin discussions with our international partners today to prepare in advance and, if necessary, secure grain storage bags. Export delays could create a storage shortfall of 10-12 million tons. Businesses will purchase part of the additional capacity themselves, while for the rest we will seek international assistance," Vysotskyi said.

The minister added that Ukraine's military and technical preparedness is significantly stronger than it was in 2022. He said the government would continue working with businesses, international partners and the military to restore normal export operations.