Black Sea port shutdown to hit wheat exports hardest, says Vilia

The suspension of operations at Ukraine's Black Sea ports will have the greatest impact on the wheat market among the country's major crops, according to Taras Kovatsenko, Commercial Director of Vilia.

He said that more than 85% of Ukraine's grain exports are traditionally shipped by sea. As a result, Russian attacks have pushed the market back into a situation resembling 2022, when the key challenge was not global grain prices but the ability to export the harvest at all.

While Danube ports and overland routes remain alternative export channels, their combined capacity is far from sufficient to replace the Black Sea corridor. In 2025, they accounted for only 9% of Ukraine's grain exports.

Kovatsenko believes wheat will be the most vulnerable crop under these conditions. Domestic consumption in Ukraine is limited, while Europe is not a traditional destination for Ukrainian wheat. The EU reinstated import quotas last year, Ukraine's quota has already been exhausted, and additional exports are no longer economically viable.

"Under these conditions, wheat can only be exported in transit by using longer logistics routes, for example through ports in Poland or Romania. However, the capacity of these logistics channels is several times lower than the export volumes required. Therefore, we expect a significant decline in market liquidity and the sharpest price drop among the major crops," Kovatsenko said.

For farms that can afford it, he said the most appropriate strategy is to hold wheat stocks rather than sell immediately.

The outlook for other crops is mixed.

Rapeseed and soybeans remain in demand on the European market, which continues to be their traditional destination. However, domestic hryvnia-denominated rapeseed prices have already fallen by 15-20% over the past two weeks, while some contracts have been postponed to deliveries in 2027.

Sunflower, meanwhile, which relies almost entirely on domestic processing and exports through Black Sea ports, risks facing a surplus of raw material. Forward prices offered by crushing plants have already dropped by $150-200 per ton.

Corn, Ukraine's largest crop by volume, is also expected to suffer significantly from logistics shortages, increasing the risk of large carryover stocks and additional pressure on domestic prices.

"Despite everything, we hope positive factors will ultimately outweigh the negative ones and that we will successfully navigate this logistics crisis. For our part, we will continue working to secure as many logistics routes as possible and create conditions for marketing the largest possible share of the region's agricultural production," Kovatsenko said.

Danube ports and overland routes remain an alternative, but their combined capacity—accounting for only 9% of Ukraine's exports in 2025—is clearly insufficient to compensate for the loss of the Black Sea shipping corridor.