Ukraine’s crop could reach 85 MMT if August heat spares late-season crops — ASAP Agri
Ukraine may harvest around 82–85 MMT of grains and oilseeds in 2026/27 MY. ASAP Agri estimates total production at 84.9 MMT, the USDA at 82.5 MMT, and the Ukrainian Grain Association, according to its updated July forecast, at 82.6 MMT. This could exceed the 2025/26 result, estimated by different sources at 77.9–80.6 MMT, says Inna Stepanenko, Chief Grain Market Analyst at ASAP Agri.
Wheat and barley harvesting is now progressing rapidly, with yields significantly above last year’s levels. Barley yields are even running at record highs. However, the final crop result will largely depend on late-season crops — corn, sunflower and soybeans.
The development of late crops varies considerably across Ukraine this year. According to a farmer survey conducted by ASAP Agri, the main stages of crop formation are already nearing completion in the south, while crops in central and parts of eastern Ukraine are still flowering, leaving their yield potential highly dependent on August weather.
Steppe: crop potential is largely formed
In the steppe zone, the condition of corn, sunflower and soybeans is assessed as good or very good. More favourable weather and improved availability of nitrogen fertilisers during the winter allowed farmers to establish strong yield potential.
Corn in southern regions has mostly completed flowering, while sunflower looks considerably better than last year, when average yields in some steppe areas fell to just 0.6–0.8 MT/HA.
Temperatures forecast to rise to +35…+37°C in August are unlikely to significantly affect yields in regions where the main stages of crop formation have already been completed. The heat will most likely only accelerate crop maturation.
Odesa and the south: weather conditions much better than last year
Weather conditions in Odesa and other southern regions have been considerably more favourable this season. Temperatures did not cause critical crop damage, while timely rainfall helped prevent the widespread drought seen last year.
Sunflower condition is assessed positively, and producers expect a substantially larger crop. Overall, southern regions could show a strong improvement in late-crop yields compared with 2025.
Dnipropetrovsk: rainfall improves prospects, but crop development is delayed
In Dnipropetrovsk region, corn and sunflower are mostly flowering or nearing the end of flowering. Planting was delayed by a cold spring, leaving crop development around one to two weeks behind normal.
Cool nights and July rainfall arrived at the right time and noticeably improved crop prospects. Corn and sunflower yields could reach or exceed last year’s levels.
The main risk is insufficient warmth in late summer and autumn. Under cool conditions, corn may have elevated moisture levels at harvest, increasing farmers’ drying costs.
Kharkiv: late crops in much better condition than last year
In Kharkiv region, corn and sunflower are at different stages of flowering, while soil moisture reserves currently remain sufficient.
Unlike last year, when corn crops were already suffering from drought, plants remain in good condition this season. Current rainfall is favourable for corn and sunflower, although precipitation during wheat maturation may have negatively affected grain quality.
Late-crop yields, particularly for sunflower, are expected to exceed last year’s levels. However, crop condition varies considerably depending on the hybrid, plant-protection programme and location.
Vinnytsia: crop outlook depends on August rainfall
In Vinnytsia region, well-protected crops are generally in satisfactory condition. However, late-planted corn and sunflower are only entering the flowering stage.
As a result, forecast heat of up to +35…+36°C in August could coincide with a critical stage of crop development and cause flower abortion. The region needs at least one or two substantial rainfall events during August to support pollination, grain formation and seed filling.
The final crop potential in Vinnytsia region will become clearer only in late August or early September.
Large crop increases logistical risks
A potentially large crop could intensify export challenges. According to the UGA, Ukraine could export around 52 MMT of grains and oilseeds in 2026/27 MY. However, this forecast can only be realised if deep-sea ports operate normally, as alternative routes cannot fully replace their capacity.
ASAP Agri estimates that the highest monthly throughput through the Danube ports reached around 2.5 MMT, while the combined record for road and rail transportation was approximately 2.2 MMT. These results were recorded in different periods and do not represent sustainable simultaneous capacity across alternative logistics routes.
By comparison, Ukraine’s deep-sea ports can handle exports of up to 6 MMT of agricultural products per month.
«Even under favourable late-crop development, a large harvest does not guarantee strong profitability for farmers. Limited export capacity could lead to an accumulation of domestic stocks, increase pressure on storage infrastructure and weigh on purchasing prices», — marks Inna Stepanenko, Chief Grain Market Analyst at ASAP Agri.