NBU says current port disruption is more manageable than in 2022

Ukraine's central bank said the current disruption to seaport operations following a new wave of Russian attacks is more manageable than the 2022 naval blockade, thanks to the development of alternative export routes and the agricultural sector's adaptation, according to the National Bank's Inflation Report.

The National Bank said vessel calls to the ports of Big Odesa stopped after a new phase of the maritime blockade began on July 23, following large-scale Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels. Rail shipments of grain to Black Sea ports also dropped sharply.

As during previous blockades, Ukraine is redirecting exports to alternative routes, including rail, road transport and Danube ports. The NBU estimates these routes will handle around 2.5 million metric tons of agricultural exports per month between August and October. Their capacity remains constrained by low water levels on the Danube, but export volumes are expected to increase from November.

The central bank forecasts that reduced exports will result in more than $2 billion in lost foreign currency earnings in the second half of 2026. However, it expects these export volumes to be shipped in the first half of 2027, offsetting the negative impact.

The NBU also said the blockade will increase farmers' transportation and storage costs, while lower export revenues will weaken the financial position of agricultural producers and could complicate financing for future sowing campaigns.