Black Sea port blockade could make Bangladesh dependent on Indian wheat — ASAP Agri

If Ukrainian and Russian deep-sea ports remain blocked for an extended period, wheat trade flows in Asia could change significantly, forcing Bangladesh to turn to supplies from India, ASAP Agri CEO Khrystyna Serebriakova said during a presentation for an Indian delegation.

According to scenarios outlined by ASAP Agri, if the blockade of deep-sea ports persists, Ukraine’s wheat exports in the 2026/27 marketing year could fall to 5–10 million tons. Meanwhile, Russian wheat exports could potentially decline to around 25 million tons if port operations face significant restrictions.

During the discussion, participants concluded that Asian wheat importers would have the greatest need to seek alternative suppliers. Bangladesh was identified as one of the most vulnerable countries, as it relies heavily on supplies from the Black Sea region.

Against this backdrop, India could strengthen its position as a key wheat supplier to Bangladesh, supported by a large crop, the opening of an export quota and geographical proximity.

“All geopolitical developments at present point to one obvious opportunity: within the next 5–50 days, Bangladesh could become largely dependent on Indian wheat supplies. Given disruptions and uncertainty surrounding alternative sources of supply, India increasingly appears to be the most practical and reliable neighbouring supplier for Bangladesh,” said Sandeep Bansal, managing director of Grain Flour India Pvt. Ltd.