Port blockade: Ukraine could lose more than $5 billion in grain exports — Forbes

If the blockade of Black Sea exports continues until the end of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine will be unable to export about 24 million tons of grain and could lose more than $5 billion in potential export revenue, according to estimates by the analytical department of Forbes Ukraine.

Forbes estimates Ukraine’s total exportable grain supply for the current season at 50 million tons. The figure takes into account domestic consumption and carryover stocks.

Even if the maritime blockade persists, some of the produce could be shipped via alternative routes. However, their capacity would not be sufficient to offset the loss of Black Sea exports. In this case, about 24 million tons of grain would remain in Ukraine.

Under another scenario, maritime shipments could resume as early as October. Despite the lost time, Ukraine would still be unable to export the entire planned volume, but the shortfall would fall to about 3 million tons. This grain could then be exported in the following 2027/28 marketing year.

The de facto blockade of Ukrainian ports resulted from an escalation in Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels. Following strikes in the second half of July, the number of vessel calls at Ukrainian ports fell sharply.

In August 2026, Ukraine exported 981,000 tons of grain, 2.5 times less than in the same month last year. The exports included 605,000 tons of wheat, 306,000 tons of corn and 69,000 tons of barley.