With global sunflower production at this level, oil cannot be expensive, Repetskyi says

The global sunflower oil market remains under pressure due to weak demand. Over the past two weeks, the price of Ukrainian sunflower oil on a CPT basis has fallen by $150/t, Serhii Repetskyi, co-founder and partner at Sunstone Brokers, told Latifundist.com.

According to him, sunflower oil on a CPT basis currently costs around $1,140/t. Meanwhile, the decline in destination markets over the past two weeks has been smaller, at around $50–60/t.

“Over the past two weeks, oil has fallen by $150/t on a CPT basis and by $50–60/t in destination markets. And there is no demand. We need to look at things realistically. With global sunflower production at this level, oil cannot be expensive,” Repetskyi said.

Expectations of a large sunflower supply in the new season are indeed creating fundamental pressure on the market. Global sunflower production in the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast at more than 62 million tons, about 12% higher than last season.

According to Repetskyi, Indian and European buyers are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, expecting prices to fall further.

“Demand is very weak. Indian and European buyers are patiently waiting for lower prices,” the analyst said.

In India, demand for sunflower oil has weakened recently in favour of alternative vegetable oils. Sunflower oil imports in August were expected to reach 180,000 tons, 28% less than in July, while soybean oil imports were projected to hit a record level.

Repetskyi also described demand from Turkey as weaker. According to him, exports of refined sunflower oil from the country have declined, while Turkish companies are actively buying and processing sunflower seeds instead.

“Exports of refined oil from Turkey have fallen significantly, so there is no demand for crude oil there. In addition, they are actively buying and processing sunflower seeds,” he explained.

The Telegram channel Analitychnyi Baton also reported pressure on the market. According to its information, Turkey and India have paused purchases after completing recent buying, while Russia is offering sunflower oil more actively at lower prices.

The weakness in the vegetable oil market is already spilling over into the Ukrainian sunflower seed market. According to Analitychnyi Baton, sunflower supply increased sharply on Monday, after which some major processors began cutting their purchase prices.