Gross harvest of soybeans in 2017/18 MY will decrease to 3.9 million tons

Gross harvest of soybeans in 2017/18 MY will decrease by almost 400k tons to 3.9 million tons if compared with the previous year.

Such a forecast is made by Victoria Blazhko, the analyst of ODA Ukraine.

She notes that dry summer adversely affected the yield. According to the latest data, the average yield of soybean is 15% lower than last year and amounts to 1.81 tons/ha.

"The gap between the current and last year's yield will remain approximately at the same level until the end of the harvest campaign and, therefore, the average yield of Ukrainian soybean this year is estimated at 1.96 t/ha, compared to 2.31 t/ha in 2016," the analyst says.

At the same time from the beginning of 2017/18 MY and as of October 6, 2017, the average price on EXW terms for soybean in the domestic market of Ukraine increased by 750 UAH/ton to 10.9 thousand UAH/ton. And for the same period last year, the average price increase on EXW was only 250 UAH/ton.

"Last week, the active arrival of a new soybean crop has slowed down the upward price movement, but this lull must be temporary and in the second half of October the market can again go up against the backdrop of increased demand of processors and exporters, as well as a large spread between domestic prices for soybeans and rapeseed," summs up Victoria Blazhko.

As of October 10, Ukrainian agrarians harvested 2.3 million tons of soybeans from 1.2 million hectares (62% out of 2 million hectares).