World cereal stocks hit a four-year low level — FAO

Based on the latest FAO production and utilization forecasts, world cereal stocks could decline by as much as 26 million tons, or 3 per cent, in the new season to a four-year low of 830 million tons.

This figure is around 18 million tons, or 2 per cent, below the FAO’s May forecast. The sharp month-on-month downward revision is mostly associated with corn, whereas the forecasts for wheat and rice inventories have been raised slightly since the previous report.

"The projected fall in cereal stocks would result in a drop in the global cereal stock-to-use ratio to just below 30 per cent, which still points to a relatively comfortable supply level," the report says.

Globally, coarse grain inventories are seen heading towards a second consecutive annual decline in 2019/20, falling by 9 per cent to just over 369 million tons, the lowest level since 2014/15.

By contrast, total wheat stocks could expand by 4.6 per cent year-on-year and approach a near-record level of 281 million tons. The increase of 1 per cent in wheat stocks since May reflects upward adjustments made for the EU and the United States, outweighing downward revisions in Australia and the Russian Federation.

Previously reported that due to prolonged excessive wet conditions resulting in major delays in crop plantings, this year’s corn production in the United States was pegged at 330 million tons, down 45 million tons from FAO’s first production forecast published in May and almost 10 per cent (36 million tons) short of last year’s level.