Southern hemisphere crop concerns weigh on world grains production in 2021/22

The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its February forecast for world 2021/22 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production by 5 mln t m/m, to 2,281 mln t, mainly because of downward adjustments for southern hemisphere maize crops, but with sorghum and wheat figures also trimmed.

Global total grains production in 2021/22 is forecast at a record 2,281 mln t, 3% higher y/y, as gains in maize (+71 mln t), wheat (+6 mln) and sorghum (+4 mln) more than compensate for reductions in barley (-13 mln) and other coarse grains (-8 mln).

Linked to broad increases in consumption, particularly for feed, total use is seen rising by 2% y/y, to 2,286 mln, also a new peak. Cumulative stocks are forecast to drop to a seven-year low, including a modest y/y reduction in the major exporters. Mainly tied to a predicted pullback in Chinese maize imports, total grains trade is expected to dip by 1%, to 424 mln t.

The drop in 2021/22 supplies is exacerbated by a smaller carry-in and, despite a downgraded outlook for consumption, total grain stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are placed 5 mln t lower than before, at 596 mln, marking a fifth successive drawdown.

At 424 mln t, the global trade (July/June) forecast is 1 mln t higher m/m, on upgraded maize and wheat outlooks.

Supply and demand projections for 2022/23 wheat are similar to the tentative outlook issued last month, including predictions for record production and consumption. While global ending stocks are now seen edging slightly higher y/y (year-on-year), exporter carryovers are still expected to be smaller than average.

The IGC first projections of 2022/23 world maize and barley harvested areas are for little overall y/y change. However, with high input costs complicating calculations about the relative profitability of spring crops, forecasts will be kept under close review in the months ahead.