July USDA: wheat production in Ukraine in 2022/23 seen 2 MMT lower
The USDA projection for wheat production in Ukraine in 2022/23 was cut by 2 mln t, to 19.5 mln t (June report: 21.5 mln t). USDA analysts left unchanged their estimate of wheat export from the country at 10 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in Ukraine are estimated at 5.24 mln t, down from 6.01 mln t in the previous report.
The forecast for the world wheat production in the 2022/23 season was revised downward by 1.79 mln t, to 771.64 mln t, by the USDA analysts in the July report (June report: 773.43 mln t).
Experts project the world wheat export at 205.47 mln t, 0.88 mln t up on the June projection (204.59 mln t). The global ending stocks are revised upward by 0.67 mln t, from 266.85 mln t to 267.52.
The US wheat production in 2022/23 is expected at 48.47 mln t, up by 1.21 mln t month-to-month. Wheat export projection is increased by 0.68 mln t to 21.77 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in the US are estimated at 17.39 mln t, 0.34 mln t up from the June report data.
The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2022/23 (July vs. June report indicators, mln t):
| Country | Production | Exports | Ending stocks |
| EU | 134.10 (-2) | 35.5 (-0.5) | 10.96 |
| russia | 81.5 (+0.5) | 40 | 11.64 (+0.5) |
| Ukraine | 21.5 (-2) | 10 | 5.24 (-0.77) |
| Australia | 30 | 24 | 3.48 |
| Canada | 34 (+1) | 25 (+1) | 3.92 (+0.5) |
| Argentina | 19.5 (-0.5) | 13.5 (-0.5) | 1.08 |
China's wheat 2022/23 projection in the July USDA report:
- production: 135 mln t
- import: 9.5 mln t
- ending stocks: 141.52 mln t
- exports: 0.9 mln t
Wheat export from Ukraine since the start of 2022/23 has come to 71 thou. t, 66% down YoY.