Black Sea grain deal 60-day extension may halt purchases of Ukrainian grain: Barva Invest

The terrorist state russia announced it does not oppose extending the Black Sea grain deal but only for 60 days. For the Ukrainian grain market, this implies a repeat of the current situation in a month's time. That is, market participants will again face the inability to plan their activities and will suspend purchases, Barva Invest analysts say.

The deal expires on Saturday, 18 March.

Wheat quotations rose amid another wave of concerns about the state of crops in the US and mixed news about the extension of the grain deal. Activity on the Ukrainian market remains very limited.

Wheat prices as of 14 March:

• May contract for wheat on CME (ZWK3) – 6.84 $/bu (+0.5 $/bu)
• May contract for wheat on Euronext (EBMK3) – 267.0 €/t (+5.25 €/t)
• May contract for Black Sea wheat (BWFK3) – 289.75 $/t (+1.5 $/t)
• DAP ports (11.5%) – 205 $/t
• DAP Izov (11.5%) – 195-200 $/t

"Wheat condition in Kansas, a key growing state in the US, remained unchanged with 17% in good to excellent condition. In Oklahoma, the condition of the crops deteriorated from 39% to 30% in good to excellent condition. The estimate of the wheat area suffering from drought increased from 54% to 55%," analysts report.

As of March 13, wheat export from Ukraine totalled 11.8 mln t, 35% down YoY. Grains shipment since the start of 2022/23 has plunged by 24% YoY to 34.2 mln t.