Critical moisture deficit spreads across Eastern Ukraine — ASAP Agri

With no significant rainfall or snowfall expected in the next two weeks and increasing concerns over Ukraine’s water reserves, discussions between producers and buyers about the new crop are intensifying. In response, ASAP Agri has prepared a focused analysis of current soil moisture levels, comparing them to the 40-year average.

The following map is based on data from the CPC model, which assesses moisture availability in the top 1.6 meters of soil.

Its results clearly highlight a widespread moisture deficit—unsurprising to many. However, the map distinctly illustrates strong regional disparities. While the western regions are not experiencing shortages, the situation deteriorates progressively from the center to the east, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Six regions — Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk — are facing a critical moisture deficit. Among them, the latter four are experiencing the most severe shortages ever recorded.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"Despite these challenges, reports indicate that the first applications of fertilizers have already begun in these areas, demonstrating producers’ resilience and belief in the future. Sooner or later, the rain will come!"

It is worth noting that this year's water reserve situation is the complete opposite of last year. In early spring 2024, Ukraine’s water reserves were well above normal, whereas now they are trending at or below average. As an example, a detailed analysis of Cherkasy’s situation is provided below.

Given these conditions, market operators are likely to monitor Ukraine’s weather patterns even more closely. One certainty remains: «Все буде добре, все буде Україна!»