Ukraine’s soybean exports may fall by nearly 40% in 2025/26

Ukrainian soybean exports are expected to decline by 37% by the end of the 2025/26 season, according to Svitlana Kuprieieva, an analyst at UkrAgroConsult’s oilseeds market division.

As of January 1, 2026, the soybean harvest is almost complete. A total of 2,043.5 thousand hectares, or 99% of the forecast area (2,062.8 thousand hectares), have been harvested. Current yields average 2.37 tons per hectare, bringing total production to 4.85 million tons.

UkrAgroConsult’s current forecast is based on revised estimates of planted area and yields:

• planted area: –14% year-on-year (vs. 2024/25 MY),
• yield: –5%,
• production: –19%.

The 2025/26 season began with a 10% export duty on soybeans. Since the duty was introduced, the bulk of volumes has been directed to domestic processors, while exports remained minimal. Over time, the situation has begun to normalize as export issues for producers were gradually resolved.

Monthly soybean export volumes remain below last year’s levels. However, December marked the highest shipment volume since the start of the season — around 350,000 tons — nearly reaching last year’s figure. Overall, soybean exports are expected to decline by 37% for the season.

“The key trend of the 2025/26 MY is a shift in focus — from soybean exports to oil and meal. However, the coming months will be decisive. If soybean exports continue to grow, supply and demand balances may be revised toward higher raw soybean exports. But the situation will largely depend on logistics and port operations, which have recently been regularly subjected to Russian strikes,” the message reads.