From 46 to 21 MMT? ASAP Agri outlines three scenarios for russian wheat exports

Following the Ukrainian attacks on Novorossiysk grain terminals on 12 August, russian exporters immediately switched their trading activity to the Baltic ports despite higher logistics costs. As soon as a week later, the market saw an increase in the number of offers of russian wheat on FOB Vysotsk/Ust-Luga and FOB Riga/Liepaja, Inna Stepanenko, Senior Grain Market Analyst at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Pessimistic scenario: export drops sharply on limited capacity of alternative routes

The capacity of Baltic ports is limited. According to market operators, transshipment programs for russian wheat are already largely booked through November, leaving little room for additional cargoes. At the same time, significant volumes of Latvian grain are occupying storage and handling capacity.

As a result, Latvian Baltic ports may be able to handle only around 600 KMT of russian wheat per month, below earlier expectations of around 900 KMT.

Taking into account all alternative routes — including Baltic and Caspian ports, Vladivostok and land corridors — russia’s maximum monthly grain export capacity is estimated at around 2.3 MMT, covering not only wheat but other grains as well.

With total grain exports at around 2.0 MMT in July and 2.2–2.3 MMT expected in August, and assuming shipments remain capped at around 2.3 MMT per month for the rest of the season, grain exports would reach only about 27.3 MMT in 2026/27. Under this scenario, wheat exports could fall to around 21 MMT if disruptions to Black Sea and Azov logistics persist.

As a reminder, the current USDA forecast for russian wheat exports in 2026/27 MY is 46 MMT, while local analysts are more cautious, with estimates at around 44.5–44.6 MMT.

Moderate scenario: still more than 13 MMT below USDA’s forecast

In a more optimistic scenario, if russian wheat shipments through the Black Sea return to normal from the beginning of 2027, wheat exports could reach around 32.7 MMT in 2026/27 MY.

Optimistic scenario: normalisation from Q2 2026/27

With August almost over and no meaningful improvement so far, it is reasonable to expect that at least September will remain challenging for russian wheat exports. Still, September could show some recovery as russian exporters continue adapting to the new reality and increase shipments through alternative routes.

Under the best-case scenario, September exports would remain disrupted, but a solution would be found, allowing shipments to gradually normalise thereafter. In this case, russian wheat exports could reach around 40 MMT in 2026/27 MY.

Where will importers turn to replace russian wheat?

Even under the most optimistic scenario, the global market could lose around 6 MMT of russian wheat exports in 2026/27 MY. Part of this shortfall may be offset by stronger domestic production in several key importing countries. In the MENA region in particular, total wheat production is expected to increase by around 12.2 MMT y/y, driven primarily by larger crops in Iran, Turkey, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, while the region’s combined wheat imports could decline by about 9.7 MMT y/y, reducing the need to seek additional supplies from alternative origins.

However, 2026/27 is not an easy season in which to find alternative suppliers. Many of the world’s major wheat exporters are expected to have less exportable supply due to smaller crops. At the beginning of the season, much of the market’s expectations were focused on the Black Sea, as both russia and Ukraine were heading toward strong crops and large exports. Now, however, both countries are facing serious logistical constraints.

One of the potential beneficiaries could be India, which has recently reopened wheat exports amid a strong domestic crop and could take advantage of reduced Black Sea availability. Indian wheat is likely to be in demand in Asian markets, with Bangladesh — the largest Asian buyer of russian wheat — among the most obvious destinations. Geographic proximity and established trade links between India and Bangladesh could provide an additional advantage. Asian buyers may also increase purchases from Australia, Argentina, Canada and the U.S.

Meanwhile, MENA buyers may have to increase purchases of European wheat to compensate for reduced Black Sea supply. Turkey, which normally covers a lion's share of its wheat import needs with russian origin, may instead seek to minimise imports this season, supported by a strong domestic crop.

From the end of August 2026, ASAP Agri began monitoring russian 12.5% wheat prices at Baltic ports, together with freight rates from the Baltic to major importing destinations, for its premium subscribers.