Forecast of world grain trade in 2017/18 MY is reduced to 403 million tons

World grain trade in 2017/18 is pegged at almost 403 million tons, down marginally from the previous forecast in September but still 0.4 percent (1.5 million tons) above the 2016/17 all-time high.

This is reported by FAO in the Cereal Supply and Demand Brief.

World trade in wheat in 2017/18 (July/June) is now forecast at nearly 175 million tonnes, nearly at par with the 2016/17 record volume as import demand is seen to remain steady in nearly all regions with the exception of Africa, where total imports could decline slightly mainly on reduced purchases by Algeria and Morocco.

However, export supplies are expected to be more than adequate to meet global demand, especially in view of this year’s bumper crop in the Russian Federation, which is likely to place the country as the world’s largest exporter of wheat in 2017/18.

Global trade in coarse grains in 2017/18 (July/June) is currently forecast to reach nearly 183 million tonnes, down slightly from the previous month but still 1.2 percent (2 million tonnes) higher than in 2016/17.

Much of this expansion would be accounted for by higher world maize trade, which is seen increasing by some 3.3 percent to 143 million tonnes, largely underpinned by much larger maize imports by China, the EU and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Argentina and Brazil are likely to become the main beneficiaries of the projected expansion in world coarse grains trade in 2017/18.

Following small upward revisions to export forecasts for China and Myanmar, world trade in rice in 2018 is now pegged at 45.2 million tonnes, up 1 percent year-on-year and the second highest on record.

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