October USDA: world wheat production forecast for 2021/22 revised downward
In its October report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) forecasts the world wheat production in 2021/22 at 775.87 mln t, 4.41 mln t down from the September report (780.28 mln t).
The world wheat export projection dropped by 0.11 mln t to 199.63 mln t. Wheat ending stocks forecast was also reduced by 6.04 mln t to 277.18 mln t (September report: 283.22 mln t).
The US wheat production in 2021/22 is forecast by USDA analysts at 44.79 mln t, 1.39 mln t down on the September forecast. The projection for wheat export from the US remains unchanged, at 23.81 mln t, ending stocks are expected to fall by 0.94 mln t to 15.79 mln t.
Ukraine's wheat production forecast for 2021/22 is flat mth/mth, at 33 mln t. Wheat export and ending stocks projection for Ukraine is also unchanged, at 23.5 mln t and 1.71 mln t, respectively.
The USDA projection for the major wheat producing countries is forecast at 317.4 mln t, 1.6 mln t down from the September estimate.
The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2021/22 (October vs. September report indicators, mln t):
| Country | Production | Exports | Ending stocks |
| EU | 139.4 (+0.4) | 35.5 (+0.5) | 10.72 (–0.25) |
| Russia | 72.5 | 35 | 9.48 (–0.5) |
| Ukraine | 33 | 23.5 | 1.71 |
| Australia | 31.5 | 23.5 (+0.5) | 4.08 (-0.8) |
| Canada | 21 (–2) | 15 (–2) | 4.49 (+0.08) |
| Argentina | 20 | 13.5 | 2.74 (–0.5) |
China's wheat 2021/22 projection is stable mth/mth:
- production: 136.9 mln t
- import: 10 mln t
- ending stocks: 141.02 mln t
- exports: 1 mln t
As of 6 October, wheat export from Ukraine in the 2021/22 season made up 9.4 mln t, 0.45 mln t up YoY. The UGA estimates Ukraine's wheat export potential at 26 mln t.
Winter wheat sowing in Ukraine was 63% completed as of 11 October.