January USDA: world wheat crop climbs, exports cut
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its January report projects the world wheat production in 2021/22 to reach 778.6 mln t, 0.71 mln t above the December report (777.89 mln t).
Experts project the world wheat export at 204.4 mln t, 1.07 mln t down on the December projection. The global ending stocks are revised upward by 1.77 mln t, from 278.18 mln t to 279.95.
The US wheat production in 2021/22 is expected at 44.79 mln t, flat month-to-month. Wheat export projection is cut by 0.41 mln t to 22.45 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in the US are estimated at 17.09 mln t, 0.81 mln t up from the December report data.
The USDA projection for wheat production in Ukraine in 2021/22 remains stable, at 33 mln t. USDA analysts also left their estimate of wheat export from the country at the previous reports' level, at 24.2 mln t. Wheat ending stocks in Ukraine are estimated at 1.61 mln t, 0.2 mln t up.
Learn more: TOP 14 Wheat Exporters From Ukraine in 10M 2021
Wheat production in the largest exporting countries is projected at 323.55 mln t, 0.7 mln up mth/mth.
The projection for the major wheat exporters in 2021/22 (January vs. December report indicators, mln t):
| Country | Production | Exports | Ending stocks |
| EU | 138.9 (+0.2) | 37.5 (+0.5) | 9.88 (-0.05) |
| Russia | 75.5 | 35 (-1) | 10.63 (+0.4) |
| Ukraine | 33 | 24.2 | 1.61 (+0.2) |
| Australia | 34 | 25.5 | 4.53 |
| Canada | 21.65 | 15 | 5.14 |
| Argentina | 20.5 (+0.5) | 13.5 | 2.71 (+0.37) |
China's wheat 2021/22 projection in the January USDA report:
- production: 136.95 mln t
- import: 9.5 mln t
- ending stocks: 141.17 mln t
- exports: 0.9 mln t, ▼0.1
As a reminder, wheat export from Ukraine in 2021/22 was limited to 25.3 mln t. The Memorandum of Understanding was signed by the Agrarian Ministry and grain market participants. The Government also considers milling wheat export from the country. The decision is reported to be taken in January.
As of Jan. 10, wheat export from Ukraine made up 16.1 mln t, 27% up YoY.