What to expect from Jan WASDE? — ASAP Agri

The USDA’s monthly report on the balance between supply and demand for agricultural commodities is just around the corner, scheduled for release tomorrow, 10 Jan. While predicting the market impact of such reports is always a challenging exercise, ASAP Agri will attempt to highlight key expectations.

Market context

First, let’s recall that over the past two weeks, markets have been particularly influenced by concerns over drought stress currently affecting Argentina. This situation has pushed the prices of various commodities higher, particularly corn, which remains below the resistance levels of 4.58–4.60 USD/bu on the CBOT. These levels have been tested repeatedly in recent days but have not been breached, as these six-month highs are leveraged by physical market players to accelerate sales or by funds to close long positions.

Meanwhile, U.S. wheat continues to struggle with its bearish trend, and soybean prices have similarly failed to hold above 10 USD/bu.

Expectations for Argentina and Brazil

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

 ASAP Agri

"Market participants largely anticipate a slight downgrade in Argentina’s production estimates for corn and soybeans. At the same time, Brazil’s potential for both crops is expected to improve marginally. From a fundamental perspective, these adjustments are unlikely to cause a significant shift in the market."

Key focus: U.S. corn carryover stocks

The spotlight is expected to fall on the U.S. corn carryover stocks. With export sales already exceeding 60% of the USDA’s 2024/25 target, the current U.S. corn export potential may be underestimated. Additionally, an upward revision in ethanol sector consumption could further support a reduction in U.S. ending stocks.

"Many analysts are forecasting U.S. 2024/25 carryover stocks to fall below 40 MMT or even under 37 MMT, compared to the 44 MMT currently projected by the USDA. Should the report confirm these adjustments, the $4.60/bu resistance level for corn could finally be breached, which could also provide a boost to wheat prices," the analyst notes.

On the other hand, he adds, the outlook for soybeans remains weighed down by heavy fundamentals, which are unlikely to see substantial changes in this report.

This Jan WASDE report could bring a glimmer of optimism for grains, especially corn, while the bearish outlook for soybeans is likely to remain unchanged.