March WASDE report: no major shifts, few surprises — ASAP Agri
The March USDA report brought no major surprises for market participants. Overall, it is considered neutral—slightly positive for corn and soybeans but somewhat negative for wheat, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
On a global scale, ending stocks for the current season were reported as follows:
- wheat: 260.1 MMT, up from 257.6 MMT last month but down from 269.5 MMT in 2023/24;
- corn: 288.9 MMT, slightly lower than 290.4 MMT last month and significantly below 314 MMT in 2023/24;
- soybeans: 121.4 MMT, down from 124.3 MMT last month but above 112.6 MMT in 2023/24.
The USDA maintained a cautious stance, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and the market’s dependence on upcoming announcements from President Trump. The report does not yet account for potential disruptions in global grain flows that could arise from the looming “Trade War 2.0.”
Despite strong recent U.S. corn export activity, the USDA maintained its previous export estimates, defying expectations of an upward revision. Similarly, projections for corn and soybean production in South America remained unchanged, despite recent forecast downgrades from many local analysts, particularly in Argentina.
One of the few surprises in the report came from Ukraine, where production estimates saw upward revisions:
- wheat: +500 kt → 23.4 MMT;
- sunflower: 13.4 MMT;
- soybeans: +400 kt → 7 MMT;
- corn: +300 kt → 26.8 MMT.
These late-season adjustments are notable but are unlikely to have a significant impact on the local physical market.
