Next season could bring a boost for Ukrainian corn exports to the EU — ASAP Agri

The European Union remains the primary export destination for Ukrainian corn. In a typical season, Ukraine supplies more than half of the EU’s imported corn. However, this season has taken an unexpected turn: U.S. corn has made a surprising breakthrough, with 2 MMT already shipped to Europe, representing 16% of total EU corn imports. For comparison, that figure stood at just 182 KMT in the 2023/24 season, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

This sharp increase in U.S. shipments has been largely driven by strong price competitiveness, especially following President Trump’s return to office. Yet looking ahead, Ukraine may hold a strategic advantage, the analyst adds.

The EU is expected to maintain zero tariffs on Ukrainian corn imports beyond 5 June 2025, while the outlook for continued U.S. access is more uncertain. Although trade tensions are currently on a three-month pause (through early July), the possibility of 25% tariffs on American corn returning remains very real.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"Should those tariffs be reinstated, the cost advantage of U.S. corn would likely erode. Combined with a potentially larger Ukrainian harvest and downward pressure on domestic prices, this could significantly enhance the competitiveness of Ukrainian corn in the EU market."

Corn planting has just begun in Ukraine, and with a widely expected expansion in planted area, optimism is growing that the country could rebound with a much stronger harvest this year. That would follow the disappointing 2024 crop, which came in at just 26.8 MMT — Ukraine’s smallest since 2017, according to the USDA.

In that scenario, Ukraine wouldn’t just reclaim its traditional market share — it could go further and expand it. However, a significant recovery in EU demand is unlikely before the new marketing season begins in October. Starting as early as July, Brazil is expected to enter the market with its new-crop corn. Its arrival will inevitably heighten competition across Europe, and if tariffs on U.S. corn are reinstated, Brazil could emerge as a strong competitor to Ukrainian grain.