Breaking point? Wheat prices face key test on Euronext and CBOT — ASAP Agri
As the market awaits the return of Black Sea wheat futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, marked by the launch of the new Black Sea CVB Wheat (Argus) contract (FOB Constanța, Varna, and Burgas), Euronext remains the primary benchmark for pricing Black Sea-origin wheat, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
Lately, European wheat prices (quoted in euros) have fallen sharply, driven in part by the weakening U.S. dollar. This has brought prices close to a key long-term upward trendline — a psychological support zone near 200 EUR/MT. A similar setup is unfolding on the CBOT, where monthly prices are also approaching a critical long-term trend level — around 5.30 USD/BU.
Olivier Bouillet
Head of Analytics & Insights at
ASAP Agri
"On both sides of the Atlantic, many producers view current futures prices as too low to justify forward selling, particularly for the upcoming crop. Selling interest among farmers is expected to stay muted. Speculative funds show a similar hesitance, with positioning already heavily net short, especially in Chicago."
From a technical perspective, wheat markets may be nearing the end of their bearish run. But caution is warranted: as the saying goes, “the more a support is tested, the weaker it becomes.” A decisive break below these trendlines would signal trouble ahead for the western farmers' cash flow outlook.
