2025/26 Season outlook: corn remains the key driver and support for global grain markets
The USDA report released on 12 May provides an early look at the global outlook for the 2025/26 season for both wheat and corn, highlighting contrasting dynamics between the two crops. This USDA report signals tightening in the corn market, even with massive production, while the wheat market remains more balanced thanks to rising stocks, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
Starting with corn, the report reveals another sharp drop in ending stocks projected for the upcoming season. This global stock decline is expected despite a record-breaking world production forecast. In the U.S., for instance, production could surpass 400 million metric tons for the first time ever. As a result, global corn ending stocks are forecast to fall to their lowest level in 12 years. The key takeaway is a strong and steady demand, both from the feed industry and the ethanol sector.
In contrast, the situation for wheat appears more burdensome. A slight increase in global wheat ending stocks is expected, alongside record-high production. The stocks-to-use ratio among major exporters is forecast to climb to its highest level in seven years, underlining the heavy tone in the wheat market.
Olivier Bouillet
Head of Analytics & Insights at
ASAP Agri
"As widely expected, this first USDA outlook confirms that corn will remain the main price driver across grain markets again in 2025/26. While the season hasn’t even started, markets are already watching two major unknowns: future weather conditions and the direction of trade relations amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. China’s buying behavior—especially for corn—will be crucial for price direction in the coming months if the country does not want to dig too deep into its stocks. . ."
