Ukraine’s wheat market shows early signs of repeating 2020/21 season — ASAP Agri

The Ukrainian wheat market is already showing patterns that closely resemble the 2020/21 marketing year: lower yields, higher protein content, a shortage of feed wheat, and narrowing price spreads between wheat classes. At first glance, it all points to a familiar scenario, said Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

According to her, just like in 2020/21, the new season began with a lack of moisture in autumn, a warm winter, and a stressful spring — especially in southern regions, where crops lost a significant part of their yield potential. Even the June rains failed to significantly improve the situation.

At the same time, weather conditions across the country were highly uneven. Central and western regions showed much better crop conditions, offering some hope of offsetting southern losses.

Blazhko noted that recent field reports indicate some wheat fields in western Ukraine have been affected by smut — a fungal disease triggered by recent rainfall. These fields require immediate harvesting, or the disease could spread and render the grain unsuitable even for feed purposes.

Victoria Blazhko

Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri

“At the start of the 2025/26 season, milling wheat is once again taking center stage,” Blazhko added. “Feed wheat supply is limited, while farmers are mostly offering wheat with a protein content of 11.5–12.5%, and in some cases even above 13%.”

“We’ve seen this before: in 2020/21, high-protein wheat accounted for nearly 60% of the total harvest, while feed wheat became scarce. Unlike the past three seasons, when the share of food-grade wheat dropped to 25–37%, this year’s crop structure is likely shifting back toward a protein-heavy model typical of 2020/21,” the analyst explained.

Still, Blazhko cautions against drawing final conclusions too early. As of July 17, only 30% of the area had been harvested. The full picture will become clearer after harvests are completed in central and western Ukraine, where wheat quality and structure may differ significantly.