ASAP Agri cuts Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower crop forecast by 200 KMT — to 12.8 MMT

ASAP Agri has lowered its sunflower production forecast for Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY from 13 to 12.8 MMT, just 150 KMT above last year’s level. The main reason is weak yields in the southern and eastern regions, which suffered the most from this year’s drought, , writes Latifundist.com.

“Yields in the south, where rains have been absent for a long time, are very low. Meanwhile, in the center, north, and west, sunflower fields look good. Therefore, last year’s crop should be confirmed thanks to strong results in these regions,” noted Andriy Kapritsa, agronomy consultant at ASAP Agri and head of Flora A.A. farm.

“In our region (Vinnytsia oblast), average sunflower yields across most farms will certainly be around 3.5 t/ha, thanks to favorable weather conditions this year,” he added.

At the same time, Kapritsa emphasized: “Biological yield does not always equal actual harvest. The real crop is what ends up in storage, not what stands in the field. Delays in harvesting, prolonged rains, outbreaks of sclerotinia and other diseases may affect the final result. Western and northern regions are particularly at risk. Still, what we see in the field adds optimism.”

In contrast, USDA forecasts Ukraine’s sunflower crop at 13.5 MMT in 2025/26, compared with 13 MMT last year. “We do not share USDA’s optimism regarding last year’s 13 MMT figure. The market clearly shows that old-crop sunflower seed has already left the balance, and last year’s actual production was closer to 12.65 MMT, according to ASAP Agri estimates,” commented Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers.

She added that USDA’s new-season forecast of 13.5 MMT also looks overly optimistic: “USDA FAS estimates production lower — around 12.7 MMT. This figure looks much more realistic, considering the losses in the south and east. We therefore expect USDA to revise its official estimates in upcoming reports.”

As of 4 September, only 3% of the sunflower area in Ukraine had been harvested, with an average yield of 1.35 t/ha. This equals 208 KMT, compared to 1.39 MMT (16% of the area) by the same date last year. The current statistics cover only Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Poltava regions.