“Where to sell?” Ukraine may end with 5 MMT of unplaced corn exports in 2025/26 — ASAP Agri

Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn export season has started at a crawl. As of 26 November, the country has shipped just 2.4 MMT — almost half the October–November volume recorded last year. This is the weakest start in three seasons, marks Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.

Victoria Blazhko

Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri

"The slowdown is easy to explain. Harvest delays, prolonged drying, continued missile and drone damage to energy and railway infrastructure, and disruptions in delivering grain to ports are all holding back exports. At the same time, record U.S. and South American corn crops are hitting the global market aggressively — at better prices, with stable logistics, and active commercial push in regions critical for Ukraine."

The European Union delivered the clearest warning. As of 26 November, Ukraine had shipped only 1.1 MMT of corn to the bloc, compared with 2.5 MMT at the same time last season. A year ago, Ukraine covered 52.7% of EU corn imports. Today, its share has collapsed to 20.5%. The bloc has rapidly switched to Brazil and the U.S., which now supply nearly three-quarters of all corn imports.

The losses are especially striking in individual markets. Spain, once one of the pillars of Ukrainian exports, has imported only 180 KMT versus 851 KMT last year. Italy, although still a key buyer, has also reduced purchases to 586 KMT compared with 818 LMT last season. Even in the most optimistic scenario, ASAP Agri estimates Ukraine’s shipments to the EU this season at no more than 8.5 MMT, compared with 9 MMT last year.

Turkey — last season’s largest buyer of Ukrainian corn — has also cut purchases. As of 26 November, exports total 535 KMT, down from nearly 1.1 MMT last year. The main reason is structural: Turkey harvested a larger domestic crop, reducing its import needs. Even taking into account transit volumes through Turkish ports, ASAP Agri expects only 4.2 MMT of exports there this season, down from 5.7 MMT in 2024/25.

Egypt is also not increasing imports for now. In theory, Ukraine could ship up to 2 MMT of corn there in 2025/26, but strong competition from South America may cap this potential. China, according to ASAP Agri’s estimates, will remain virtually absent from the Ukrainian corn market: the expected 200 KMT of exports this season is too small to influence the overall balance.

Adding up all realistic destinations, Ukraine may reach around 20 MMT of corn exports — similar to last year. And this is where the imbalance becomes obvious. This season’s production is set to increase — from 26.8 MMT to roughly 31 MMT, with the final figure possibly coming in even higher. That pushes the export potential to 24.5 MMT. The gap between potential supply and real demand is nearly 5 MMT — corn that currently has no buyer on the global market.

This surplus creates clear risks. First, higher ending stocks are likely, which will exert downward pressure on prices in the next season. Second, domestic CPT prices may fall once inland logistics to the ports improve. In fact, the price reaction may start already in the second half of the season, when more volumes simultaneously reach the market.

Thus, the 2025/26 season is shaping up to be a major test for Ukraine’s corn exporters. Demand is weaker, competition is tougher, and supply is significantly larger, meaning Ukraine may well end the year with a substantial corn surplus — and with price consequences that will affect the entire chain, from producers to traders.