Ukrainian grain prices fall by $5–6/t as multinational demand weakens and wheat loses competitiveness on global markets

Prices for corn and wheat in Ukraine have declined by around $5–6 per ton amid shipment disruptions at ports, rising logistics costs, and higher insurance premiums, Barva Invest co-owner and operating partner Bohdan Kostetskyi told Latifundist.com.

“Corn has dropped to $200–203 DAP POC, fourth-grade wheat to $207–209, and third-grade wheat to $212–214,” he said. “The reasons include unpredictable changes in port storage and loading capacity, as well as higher costs across the supply chain — from transportation (rail and road) to freight, driven by more expensive cargo and vessel insurance.”

According to Kostetskyi, demand for Ukrainian grain among multinational companies has declined. Uncertainty over export prospects and related cost dynamics is prompting buyers to slow procurement.

He added that FOB demand is cooling due to elevated risks. CIF prices remain stable for now, but further complications in Black Sea exports could trigger price increases.

“At the same time, the market is speculating about a potential ceasefire, which is already translating into bearish sentiment should such a scenario materialize — as the war risk premium would be removed from current price levels,” Kostetskyi noted.

The analyst also emphasized that Ukrainian wheat is under pressure from aggressive Russian dumping, large global harvests, and cautious buying strategies in destination markets.

“At present, Ukrainian wheat is not competitive,” Kostetskyi said.

Following another wave of Russian attacks on Odesa, part of the port cluster was left completely without electricity, while other terminals are operating only at limited capacity using generators, ASAP Agri reports. Market sources also point to new rail restrictions that are reducing the supply of wagons to ports.

“Frequent air raid alerts are constantly halting operations, and ports have switched to slow, sequential loading — one vessel at a time. Throughput is falling precisely when Ukraine needs to export peak volumes,” analysts said.

Last week, Russia struck railway energy infrastructure on approaches to the port of Pivdennyi for two consecutive days. Several rail sections were left without power, increasing transit time. Ukrzaliznytsia reported that due to emergency repairs and the use of diesel locomotives, transportation costs have risen four- to fivefold.

At the same time, dry ports are increasing volumes. Shipments toward the western border continued to rise last week, with average daily railcar transfers climbing to 206 wagons per day (+37 wagons, or +22% compared to November). Exports to Europe are growing across all border crossings.

As of December 12, total grain exports for the first time this season have begun to outpace December shipments last year. Ukraine exported 2 million tons of grain this month versus 1.8 million tons a year earlier, including wheat — 259,000 tons (180,000 tons last year) and corn — 824,000 tons (766,000 tons).

However, corn exports in October–November declined to 2.8 million tons compared with 4.5 million tons a year earlier. The baseline export forecast for the season has been reduced to 22 million tons, with a realistic risk of falling to 20 million tons. Demand in key markets remains weak due to strong U.S. shipments and upcoming competition from South America, despite lower prices for Ukrainian corn.

Under these conditions, fulfilling the winter export plan looks challenging, while carryover stocks may rise to 3–5 million tons — the highest level seen in recent years.