Ukraine faces nitrogen fertilizer shortage this spring: imports limited, Poland can cover only 10–15% of demand — GROSSDORF

Ukraine’s nitrogen fertilizer market risks entering the spring sowing campaign with a supply deficit, Andrii Khaliavka, CEO of GROSSDORF, told Latifundist.com.

According to him, this is not about shortages at individual companies, but about a general lack of sufficient physical supply across the country.

“When it comes to product risks, the first to be in short supply will be UAN, followed by ammonium nitrate, then urea, and only after that ammonium sulfate. This is not an emotional assessment, but a logical conclusion based on production, logistics, and demand structure,” he said.

Khaliavka noted that even with sufficient availability on foreign markets, Ukraine will not be able to import fertilizers quickly due to logistical constraints.

“Because of security risks, the maritime route is operating unstably... Under such conditions, fertilizers simply cannot move fast. Therefore, imports, even if available, are unable to promptly compensate for shortages during the peak period,” he stressed.

Khaliavka added that Polish suppliers remain an important source of product, but their volumes are insufficient to meet Ukraine’s needs.

“At best, Poland can provide 10–15% of this volume,” he said, recalling that Ukraine’s annual demand for UAN reaches 800,000 tons, of which 400,000 tons are required during the spring season.

In addition, rising domestic demand in Poland is increasing competition for supply and putting upward pressure on prices.

In 2025, Ukraine significantly increased mineral fertilizer imports, but these volumes are still insufficient to cover domestic needs. According to IA Infoindustry estimates, nitrogen fertilizer imports could reach 1.9 million tons by year-end, while total imports of all fertilizer types have already reached 2.99 million tons.